Macro / Misc.

Key Takeaways Even with the market turmoil due to the President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, we don’t see Trump reversing course in the very near term. In fact, we believe the rhetoric on trade could get…

As we await President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement this afternoon, there was some progress on the budget resolution / reconciliation bill yesterday that could:   Make passing the reconciliation / tax bill much cheaper and potentially…

This week looks like an important and busy week in Washington and beyond with: The Senate is seeking to pass their budget resolution by week’s end. President Trump announcing his reciprocal trade policy on April…

We have the following comments about Trump’s auto tariff announcement yesterday, given that some of the guidance was unclear, and in the lead up to the reciprocal tariff announcements expected on April 2. We have…

As we await President Trump’s decision on auto tariffs, we see a lot going on in DC that we want to address: 1) trade; 2) reconciliation; 3) tax cuts; and 4) the debt limit.  Reciprocal…

Congress is back in session for three weeks after a weeklong recess.  Focus this week will likely be on:   President Trump’s tariff announcement next week on April 2.  Negotiations between the House and Senate on…

We continue to believe some of President Trump’s tariffs will stay in place longer than the markets seem to expect (see below) and won’t be negotiated away in short order. We also continue to anticipate…

With Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) relenting on passage of what DC is calling a “year-long” continuing resolution (CR) through Sept. 30, as we expected, we think the same scenario could play out next…

Moments ago, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) stated that that Republicans don’t have the 60 votes in the Senate to pass the seven-month continuing resolution (CR), which some speculate could lead to a shutdown….

Below we give our quick thoughts on: 1) shutdown odds; 2) tariffs; 3) the tax bill; 4) extent deficit reduction is really in the cards; 5) the debt limit and how that is likely to…