Macro / Misc.

This week, we expect the Senate to consider their FY25 budget resolution that would set off the two-reconciliation bill strategy. In addition, Kash Patel is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director…

The House Republican budget released yesterday includes potential cuts to the food stamp / SNAP program that could be as high as $230 billion over ten years, which would be a negative for Walmart (WMT),…

Trade, budget reconciliation, and nominations are likely to dominate Washington this week. Meanwhile, current government funding expires on March 14 and Republicans and Democrats are still reportedly very far apart on top-line spending numbers for…

News that the Senate is looking to mark up a budget resolution as early as next week reinforces our view that the Congress is going to pass two reconciliation bills as opposed to one.  We…

At this early stage, we give tossup odds to Governor Mike DeWine’s (R-OH) budget proposal released yesterday, raising the state’s tax rate on sports betting from 20% to 40%, becoming law.  The budget now goes…

Both chambers of Congress are in session this week, but tariffs are likely to dominate the news flow. Meanwhile: Congressional leaders are trying to reach an agreement on FY25 spending levels. The House Budget Committees…

We continue to believe that President Trump will likely stick by his February 1 deadline for announcing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for problems he sees at the border and fentanyl coming into the…

We do not believe that the Trump administration will be successful in their attempts to freeze / cut federal funding that Congress authorized. However, we do see this attempt by the Trump administration as increasing…

We could see progress on a few fronts this week as Congress works on:   The massive reconciliation / tax bill legislation at a retreat starting today in Florida.  Top- line spending levels for defense and…

We have the following comments about President Trump’s recent trade pronouncements, which are generally consistent with our views before he became president. We are skeptical that the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in response…