July 10, 2026
Trade Policy Update: Section 301 Tariffs Likely to Replace Section 122, While USMCA Uncertainty Extends
We are watching two trade policy issues over the next several months: Whether the administration will replace the temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs that expire on July 24 with new Section 301 tariffs. We think…
July 1, 2026
(NVDA, AMD, ASML, TOELY, AVGO, MRVL) NDAA Tech/AI Amendments Left Out of House Floor Debate
The House Rules Committee did not make the MATCH Act, the Chip Security Act, or the AI Overwatch Act in order as amendments to the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This move…
July 1, 2026
(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS) California Softens Under-16 Social Media Bill, but Passage Odds Rise
We have raised our odds to 70% that California’s AB 1709, which would restrict social media companies, including META, GOOGL, SNAP, and PINS, from providing addictive features to users under 16, will become law. AB…
June 29, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: Iran Flare-Up, Reconciliation 3.0, Tech/Trade Fights, and the CLARITY Act
Despite only the House is in session (the Senate is out) this week and a likely short week with the July 4 recess coming up, there is a lot going on. Iran is once again…
June 23, 2026
(NXST, SBGI, GTN, SSP, DIS, CMCSA, PSKY, FOXA) FCC 39% TV Ownership Cap: Deregulation Is Near-Term; Litigation Risk Is Medium-Term
We believe the FCC is very near to formally eliminating the 39% national television ownership cap, with the final rule now at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within the OMB. The agency…
June 22, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: CLARITY Clock, Iran Talks, Housing Overread, and Reconciliation Update
The House and Senate are both in session this week, as the pre-August calendar is becoming the biggest obstacle for several Republican priorities that need to be worked out. We continue to believe the Digital…
June 15, 2026
Political Potpourri: Iran Deal and Potential Delays, USMCA Risks Build, and Shutdown Headlines Loom
We see three Washington policy-related risks that are likely to generate headline risk, including: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement that will probably be extended beyond the 60-day timeframe and should hold at least through the midterm…
June 15, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: Compressed Calendar Threatens Reconciliation 3.0, CLARITY, and Tech Policy
The Senate is in session, and the House is out this week, which matters because the calendar is becoming the biggest obstacle for several Republican and industry-backed priorities that still need meaningful floor time before…
June 11, 2026
(RTX, LMT, GD, BAE, BA) Defense Spending Update
Despite President Trump’s comments on Truth Social about the need to pass Reconciliation 3.0 for an additional $350 billion in defense spending, we think he will be disappointed. We continue our long-held belief that: Defense…
June 10, 2026
Trump and the USMCA
We wanted to provide our thoughts on comments made by President Trump earlier this afternoon when he said he was not looking to renew the USMCA. We do not interpret Trump’s comments as signaling an…