September 9, 2026

2026 Senate Elections: Democrats’ Progress

By Joe Lieber

We believe control of the Senate is a toss-up, although, if forced to choose, we give Republicans a slight edge in retaining control of the upper chamber. We continue to think Democrats are very likely…

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September 8, 2026

[CNC, OSCR, UNH, HUM, CVS, ELV, MOH, CI, HQY]: Mapping Payer Policy Risk / Upside by Congressional Control in November Elections

By Beth Steindecker

With the November elections less than two months away, we assess how different congressional outcomes could reshape the healthcare legislative agenda for health insurers, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), 340B contract pharmacies, and health savings account…

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September 2, 2026

EW: TAVR NCD Expectations & Implications

By John Leppard

With CMS set to release its finalized update to the TAVR NCD by Sept. 13 [likely posted after the close here], we largely expect it to maintain the core elements of the original proposal. More…

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September 1, 2026

[DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal] Final CY27 Dialysis Reg Likely Similar to Proposal; Limited, but Plausible, Paths to Upside

By Beth Steindecker

Our review of stakeholder feedback on CMS’s CY27 Medicare payment rule for dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal Care and Innovative Renal Care] leaves us expecting a final rule similar to the June proposal,…

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August 31, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Funding and Legislative Outlook

By Joe Lieber

The House is in session this week but will be out next week for the Labor Day district work period. The Senate will not return until the week of September 14. In addition to looking…

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August 27, 2026

Semiconductor Tariffs: Phase Two Is Coming

By Joe Lieber

Following reports that the Trump administration is considering eliminating the tariff exemptions for data centers and extending Sec. 232 semiconductor tariffs to servers and other chip products, we assign ~70% odds that Trump announces expanded…

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August 26, 2026

Rx Pricing: “Deal” or No Deal?

By John Leppard

Bloomberg is reporting that the White House intends to “announce a new round of drug pricing agreements with several midsized biotech companies on Monday,” and that “in exchange, the companies will be exempt” from the…

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August 26, 2026

(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS, RDDT) The Next Social Media Risk: Private Litigation, Adult Claims and Product Restrictions

By Joe Lieber

We think Meta’s (META) settlement with state attorneys general (AG) is positive for the company and the social media industry. The state AG cases were the largest and most advanced litigation threat facing the company,…

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August 25, 2026

Medtech & Biopharma Catalyst Calendar

By John Leppard

This fall seems likely to be a busy one for medtech and biopharma, with key policy catalysts coming up for a number of companies. These span from both the far-reaching in terms of most favored…

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August 21, 2026

[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, AGL, ASTH]: MA Tech Changes Rule Expectations: Stars Likely in Focus, Major Risk Adjustment Change Seem Less So

By Beth Steindecker

The pending Contract Year (CY) 2028 Technical and Policy Changes proposal for the Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, CLOV, MOH] and MA-exposed providers [AGL, ASTH] could be relatively more consequential…

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August 20, 2026

2026 Midterms: Democrats Still Overwhelming Favorite to Flip House

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe the odds Democrats win control of the House are greater than 80%, while we give Republicans roughly a 60% chance of retaining the Senate. In this note, we are focusing on…

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August 19, 2026

HTFL: SaMS & Longer-Term Medicare Rate Outlook

By John Leppard

Following HTFL’s strong 2Q26 results, we have received a number of questions on how Medicare hospital outpatient reimbursement might evolve in light of CMS’s proposal to eventually establish a new payment paradigm for software as…

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August 13, 2026

(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS, RDDT) California Under-16 Social Media Restrictions: 80% Odds of Enactment

By Joe Lieber

We wanted to update you on California’s AB 1709, which would restrict personalized feeds, autoplay and other addictive features for users under 16 and would negatively affect Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Pinterest (PINS),…

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August 13, 2026

OSCR, CNC, ELV: Which Known Obamacare Policy Headwinds Remain After 2026?

By Beth Steindecker

Through 2028, Obamacare enrollment faces two statutory headwinds after the large, still unfolding 2026 reset: The 2027 narrowing of ACA subsidy eligibility for certain non-citizens. The 2028 installation of pre-enrollment subsidy eligibility verification. For exchange…

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August 12, 2026

GKOS: iDose LCD Expectations

By John Leppard

With GKOS’s strong 2Q26 results coming on the heels of five separate MAC stakeholder meetings on the draft iDose LCDs issued in late May, we suspect the final policy – likely out in Oct. /…

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