August 20, 2026

2026 Midterms: Democrats Still Overwhelming Favorite to Flip House

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe the odds Democrats win control of the House are greater than 80%, while we give Republicans roughly a 60% chance of retaining the Senate. In this note, we are focusing on…

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August 19, 2026

HTFL: SaMS & Longer-Term Medicare Rate Outlook

By John Leppard

Following HTFL’s strong 2Q26 results, we have received a number of questions on how Medicare hospital outpatient reimbursement might evolve in light of CMS’s proposal to eventually establish a new payment paradigm for software as…

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August 13, 2026

(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS, RDDT) California Under-16 Social Media Restrictions: 80% Odds of Enactment

By Joe Lieber

We wanted to update you on California’s AB 1709, which would restrict personalized feeds, autoplay and other addictive features for users under 16 and would negatively affect Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Pinterest (PINS),…

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August 13, 2026

OSCR, CNC, ELV: Which Known Obamacare Policy Headwinds Remain After 2026?

By Beth Steindecker

Through 2028, Obamacare enrollment faces two statutory headwinds after the large, still unfolding 2026 reset: The 2027 narrowing of ACA subsidy eligibility for certain non-citizens. The 2028 installation of pre-enrollment subsidy eligibility verification. For exchange…

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August 12, 2026

GKOS: iDose LCD Expectations

By John Leppard

With GKOS’s strong 2Q26 results coming on the heels of five separate MAC stakeholder meetings on the draft iDose LCDs issued in late May, we suspect the final policy – likely out in Oct. /…

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August 10, 2026

(META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) Social Media Litigation: The Next Cases and Broader Industry Risk

By Joe Lieber

With Meta’s (META) latest loss in New Mexico’s child-safety case last Thursday, we wanted to provide a comprehensive state-by-state overview of the litigation and regulatory risks facing social media companies, including Meta, Google (GOOGL), Snap…

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August 10, 2026

RAPID Device Coverage & Constraints

By John Leppard

While a longer-term thematic positive, we are skeptical Friday’s draft notice [Fact Sheet] outlining the RAPID device Medicare coverage pathway will offer meaningful near-term benefits for industry amid agency capacity constraints. Coming nearly four months…

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August 6, 2026

Robotics, Inverters, and Data Centers: The FCC’s Next Technology Restrictions

By Joe Lieber

Following our note (here) on reports that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could effectively block certain optical transceivers from the U.S. market, we wanted to follow up about how these restrictions work and what other…

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August 6, 2026

(GOOGL, META, MSFT, Anthropic, OpenAI) Govt. Vetting of AI Frontier Models

By Joe Lieber

We view the White House’s meetings this week with Google (GOOG), Meta (META), Anthropic and OpenAI as evidence that it still plans to release its framework for vetting frontier AI models despite missing the Aug….

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August 4, 2026

(COHR, LITE, AAOI, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META) Texas Data Center “Moratorium” Likely to Extend Into 2027; FCC Chinese Transceiver Ban Likely This Year

By Joe Lieber

We expect Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) pause on data-center approvals to extend into 2027, with the Texas Legislature likely to determine the industry’s longer-term regulatory and tax treatment during its January 12-May 31 session…

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August 3, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Govt. Funding, Kids Online Safety, Crypto, Tariff Refunds, E15, and Social-Media, Ticket-Resellers and Russian Sanctions

By Joe Lieber

The Senate begins its final scheduled week before its month-long August recess with government funding, the CLARITY Act, children’s online-safety legislation, a farm bill, and Russian sanctions legislation on the agenda. We are also watching…

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August 3, 2026

[HCA, THC, CYH, ARDT, UHS, Muni-backed] FY27 Inpatient Hospital Better Than Proposed but Medicare Payment Growth Slows

By Beth Steindecker

The FY27 Medicare inpatient hospital (IPPS) final rule was modestly more favorable than the proposal for acute care hospitals [HCA, THC, CYH, ARDT, UHS, MPT, muni-backed systems], increasing CMS’s projected aggregate payment increase by $1B….

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July 31, 2026

(DKNG, FLUT, MGM, CZR) Capitol Policy Update: New York State Escalates Prediction-Market Fight

By Joe Lieber

We believe the lawsuit New York state filed today has a 60%-65% chance of producing an injunction requiring Kalshi to stop offering sports-events contracts in the state within months, while the broader fight over whether…

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July 30, 2026

[CHE, ADUS, PNTG, EHC, UHS, ACHC]: Final FY27 Medicare Rules Overall In-Line, Longer-Term Pressure on Hospice and IRFs

By Beth Steindecker

Final FY27 Medicare reimbursement rules for hospices [CHE, ADUS, PNTG, BTSG, AVAH, Gentiva, Compassus, Elara], inpatient rehab facilities (IRFs) [EHC, Select Medical, Kindred], and inpatient psych facilities (IPFs) [UHS, ACHC], were largely in line with…

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July 29, 2026

[ENSG, PACS, SBRA, OHI, LTC, CTRE]: SNF Final Rule Meets Expectations but Future PDPM Rate Pressures Remain Overhang

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s final FY27 Medicare skilled nursing facility (SNF) reimbursement regulation, which was released late Wednesday, was largely uneventful and in line with expectations for SNF operators [ENSG, PACS] and related REITs [SBRA, OHI, LTC, CTRE]….

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