February 18, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: Feb. 18-21: Budget Resolution, Reconciliation, Government Shutdown and Nominations

By Joe Lieber

This week, we expect the Senate to consider their FY25 budget resolution that would set off the two-reconciliation bill strategy. In addition, Kash Patel is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director…

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February 13, 2025

(WMT, KR, ACI, DG, KHC, PEP, CAG) SNAP / Food Stamp in the Crosshairs

By Joe Lieber

The House Republican budget released yesterday includes potential cuts to the food stamp / SNAP program that could be as high as $230 billion over ten years, which would be a negative for Walmart (WMT),…

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February 12, 2025

DC Quick Takes: Reconciliation, Defense Spending, Trade, Medicaid, a Government Shutdown, Fed Independence and Nominations

By Joe Lieber

Below we go over a host of issues that DC is grappling with from reconciliation / tax cut to defense spending, trade, Medicaid cuts, a potential government shutdown, the Fed’s independence and RFK’s nomination to…

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February 10, 2025

HUM: Government Legal Response Puts Up Fight in Star Ratings Lawsuit, We Still Favor HUM

By Beth Steindecker

We expect Humana (HUM) to ultimately prevail in its lawsuit against HHS to secure higher 2025 Medicare Advantage (MA) star ratings, but it may take longer than we originally expected (as early as March-April). While…

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February 10, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: Feb. 10-14—Tariffs, Reconciliation and Nominations

By Joe Lieber

Trade, budget reconciliation, and nominations are likely to dominate Washington this week. Meanwhile, current government funding expires on March 14 and Republicans and Democrats are still reportedly very far apart on top-line spending numbers for…

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February 10, 2025

Sizing Medicaid Work Requirement Risks [CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, ARDT, ENS, ADUS]

By Beth Steindecker

As we await the House’s budget reconciliation strategy this week, the Senate FY25 budget resolution proposal released late Friday bolsters our expectations for Medicaid work requirements, which we see as one the most likely Medicaid-related…

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February 8, 2025

Life Science Tools: NIH Indirect Cost Cut Risks

By John Leppard

NIH’s surprise announcement Friday of a 15% cap on indirect costs for both new and existing grants will likely trigger fresh uncertainty for life science tools (LST) manufacturers. While indirect costs are technically distinct from…

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February 6, 2025

[EXAS, GH, GRAL] Multi-Cancer Coverage: Take 2

By John Leppard

Bicameral reintroduction this week of legislation to allow – not require – Medicare coverage of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests starting in 2028 bolsters our view of its likely inclusion in a mid-March spending bill…

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February 5, 2025

Two Reconciliation Bills Gaining Traction: Defense, Immigration and Energy First; Tax Cuts Second

By Joe Lieber

News that the Senate is looking to mark up a budget resolution as early as next week reinforces our view that the Congress is going to pass two reconciliation bills as opposed to one.  We…

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February 4, 2025

[ENSG, PACS, SBRA, OHI]: Potential Timing of the Nursing Home Staffing Rule’s Demise

By Beth Steindecker

With the briefing in a federal lawsuit having concluded and Congress on the hunt for legislative savings, the question is when, not if, CMS’s minimum nurse staffing rule is killed, eliminating the overhang and potential…

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February 4, 2025

(DKNG, FLUT, CZR, MGM) Ohio Sports Betting Tax a Tossup

By Joe Lieber

At this early stage, we give tossup odds to Governor Mike DeWine’s (R-OH) budget proposal released yesterday, raising the state’s tax rate on sports betting from 20% to 40%, becoming law.  The budget now goes…

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February 2, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: Feb. 3-7—Tariffs, Government Funding, Reconciliation and Nominations

By Joe Lieber

Both chambers of Congress are in session this week, but tariffs are likely to dominate the news flow. Meanwhile: Congressional leaders are trying to reach an agreement on FY25 spending levels. The House Budget Committees…

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January 30, 2025

Tariffs: Mexico and Canada Still on the Block

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that President Trump will likely stick by his February 1 deadline for announcing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for problems he sees at the border and fentanyl coming into the…

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January 29, 2025

RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing

By John Leppard

The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…

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January 29, 2025

Trump’s Attempt to Freeze Federal Spending Unlikely to Succeed

By Joe Lieber

We do not believe that the Trump administration will be successful in their attempts to freeze / cut federal funding that Congress authorized. However, we do see this attempt by the Trump administration as increasing…

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