July 10, 2026

Trade Policy Update: Section 301 Tariffs Likely to Replace Section 122, While USMCA Uncertainty Extends

By Joe Lieber

We are watching two trade policy issues over the next several months: Whether the administration will replace the temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs that expire on July 24 with new Section 301 tariffs. We think…

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July 9, 2026

Online Sports Betting: State Tax Risk, New State Openings, the Prediction-Market Wild Card and Federal Regulation and Legislation

By Joe Lieber

We believe the online sports betting debate is moving in two directions. In already-legal states, the risk is higher tax rates on online sports betting operators (DKNG, FLUT, MGM, CZR) as states look for revenue…

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July 7, 2026

Midterm Election Preview: House Very Likely Flips, Senate Still Leans Republican

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that divided government is the most likely scenario after the midterm elections as we view Democrats as having an over 80% probability of retaking the House, while Republicans have roughly a…

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July 2, 2026

Hospital/ASCs: Proposed 340B Rate Cut, Imaging Site Neutral and Outpatient Surgeries Inure Benefit to For-Profits While Hit to Nonprofits/Govt Hospitals

By Beth Steindecker

For-profit hospitals [THC, HCA, CYH, ARDT, UHS] received some expected positive news – though the magnitude surprised us – in the CMS’s proposed CY27 hospital outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS) rule. Ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs)…

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July 2, 2026

Home Health: Medicare Proposal Seeks Modest 3% PDGM Recoupment Cut but Ups Spending by 2.4% and Rates Even More

By Beth Steindecker

Home health (HH) agencies [PNTG, BTSG, AVAH, UNH, ADUS, Elara] received a favorable surprise in CMS’s proposed CY27 Medicare HH reimbursement rule, released Wednesday. The regulation includes: A temporary 3% recoupment adjustment, matching the final…

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July 1, 2026

(NVDA, AMD, ASML, TOELY, AVGO, MRVL) NDAA Tech/AI Amendments Left Out of House Floor Debate

By Joe Lieber

The House Rules Committee did not make the MATCH Act, the Chip Security Act, or the AI Overwatch Act in order as amendments to the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This move…

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July 1, 2026

(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS) California Softens Under-16 Social Media Bill, but Passage Odds Rise

By Joe Lieber

We have raised our odds to 70% that California’s AB 1709, which would restrict social media companies, including META, GOOGL, SNAP, and PINS, from providing addictive features to users under 16, will become law. AB…

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June 30, 2026

Quarterly Policy Catalysts 3Q26: Health Insurers & Providers

By Beth Steindecker

We present our quarterly outlook on the key catalysts for health insurers and providers. Entering 3Q, the negative policy bias that dominated 1H26 has eased as payers appear to have priced plans appropriately and medical…

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June 29, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Iran Flare-Up, Reconciliation 3.0, Tech/Trade Fights, and the CLARITY Act

By Joe Lieber

Despite only the House is in session (the Senate is out) this week and a likely short week with the July 4 recess coming up, there is a lot going on. Iran is once again…

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June 25, 2026

[CVS, Walgreens, Muni Hospitals]: Cassidy 340B Draft Capping Contract Pharmacies and Overseeing 340B Face Long Odds; Other Regulatory Actions Likely in Motion

By Beth Steindecker

Senate HELP Chairman Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA) recently introduced 340B Drug Pricing Integrity and Affordability for Patients Act raises threats to 340B contract pharmacies (both brick-and-mortar and mail-order) [CVS and private Walgreens, and to a much…

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June 25, 2026

[DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal] Medicare Proposal: Large Dialysis Chains Do Relatively Better but Phosphate Binder Policy Falls Short

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s CY27 proposed Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment rule is likely to leave dialysis providers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] somewhat disappointed. The agency declined to extend the transitional drug add-on payment adjustment (TDAPA)…

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June 23, 2026

(NXST, SBGI, GTN, SSP, DIS, CMCSA, PSKY, FOXA) FCC 39% TV Ownership Cap: Deregulation Is Near-Term; Litigation Risk Is Medium-Term

By Joe Lieber

We believe the FCC is very near to formally eliminating the 39% national television ownership cap, with the final rule now at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within the OMB. The agency…

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June 23, 2026

Healthcare REITs, Hospitals, Nursing Homes: Status of State Legislative Efforts to Intensify Oversight of Healthcare Transactions

By Beth Steindecker

With only a handful of state legislatures still in session and most adjourned for the year, our review of state efforts to expand oversight of or impose restrictions on material changes in hospitals and healthcare…

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June 22, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: CLARITY Clock, Iran Talks, Housing Overread, and Reconciliation Update

By Joe Lieber

The House and Senate are both in session this week, as the pre-August calendar is becoming the biggest obstacle for several Republican priorities that need to be worked out. We continue to believe the Digital…

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June 18, 2026

[HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, ALHC, MOH, CLOV, CI]: CMS Recalculates 2026 Star Ratings in Light of CLOV Ruling, But Financial and Legal Questions Remain

By Beth Steindecker

CMS informed Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, ALHC, MOH, CLOV] that it is voluntarily recalculating their CY26 Star Ratings, which determine CY27 Quality Bonus Payments (QBP). Under the agency’s approach, released…

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