May 11, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Trump/Xi Summit, Reconciliation, E15, Warsh, Crypto, and Social Media Stocks in Play

By Joe Lieber

With both the House and Senate back for the next two-week stretch before the Memorial Day recess, there is a lot happening in Washington that matters for investors, including: President Trump and President Xi’s two-day…

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May 7, 2026

iRhythm (IRTC): Final LCD Signals Relief, Modest Headwind

By John Leppard

We suspect iRhythm (IRTC) faces both relief and little more than a modest growth headwind following a finalized local coverage determination (LCD) from its primary Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC) this morning. In keeping with expectations…

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May 7, 2026

INSP: MAC Modifier Mandate

By John Leppard

Medicare Administrative Contractor (WPS) WPS – with jurisdiction over ~13% of INSP implants – this morning updated its hypoglossal nerve LCD billing article to instruct physicians to bill for Inspire V services with a -52…

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May 7, 2026

Medicare Advantage: Policy Risk Panoply

By Beth Steindecker

With 1Q26 earnings now largely complete for the major Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [UNH, HUM, ALHC, CVS, ELV, CNC, MOH], near-term MA policy risks remain less acute, though far from extinguished. Congressional cuts remain unlikely…

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May 5, 2026

Inspire Medical & Messy Medicare Modifiers

By John Leppard

We view Inspire Medical’s (INSP) commentary / guidance on the risk of persistent coding and reimbursement headwinds throughout 2026 (-$120M to -$150M) as appropriately characterizing the current uncertainty, with limited prospects for near-term clarity. In…

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May 4, 2026

(META) New Mexico Public Nuisance Remedies Trial Begins – Material Downside Risk and Precedent Implications

By Joe Lieber

The remedies phase of State of New Mexico v. Meta Platforms (META), Inc.—a landmark public-nuisance bench trial—opens this morning in Santa Fe District Court before Judge Bryan Biedscheid, who also oversaw the earlier jury trial…

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May 1, 2026

(NVDA, AMD) Congress Adds China Chip Risk, But Trump Likely Wants Flexibility

By Joe Lieber

Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) introduced his version of the AI Overwatch Act yesterday, which would, among other things, impose a two-year ban on sales of high-end AI chips such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell systems to…

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May 1, 2026

Medicaid Work Requirements: Despite Certain Restrictive Actions, Overall State Flexibility Likely Limits Risk [CNC, MOH, HCA, THC, UHS]

By Beth Steindecker

A wave of state actions (AR, IA, ID, IN, MO, MT, NC, NE, NH) on Medicaid community engagement requirements (aka work requirements), spanning both accelerated implementation like today’s launch in NE and in some cases,…

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April 29, 2026

Disney (DIS)/FCC: License Loss Extremely Unlikely

By Joe Lieber

We think it is very unlikely that Disney (DIS) will lose any of its eight FCC broadcast licenses because of the FCC’s investigation into whether Disney/ABC’s DEI programs crossed into unlawful employment discrimination. Even if…

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April 28, 2026

(HOOD, BULL, IBKR, CME, COIN, DKNG, FLUT) Prediction Markets: Narrow NDAA Restrictions Are Now the Base Case

By Joe Lieber

We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…

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April 27, 2026

Dialysis – CY27 Medicare Bundle: Phosphate Binders and Monthly Add-on Remain Swing Factors [DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal]

By Beth Steindecker

With the CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment proposal now under OMB review, uncertainty surrounding the extra payments for oral phosphate binders to dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] may emerge as an…

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April 27, 2026

Washington Policy Weekly: Reconciliation, California Social Media Ban, Fed Transition, Iran, and Redistricting in Play

By Joe Lieber

With both the House and Senate in session this week, there is a great deal happening in DC that will distract members from issues important to investors. For example, lawmakers will focus on reauthorizing the…

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April 24, 2026

Hospice: Program Integrity Still Overhang, but Large Agencies Insulated; How SSVI May Be Tweaked [CHE, PNTG, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH]

By Beth Steindecker

CHE’s comments on its 1Q26 earnings call this morning regarding the government’s efforts to rein in Medicare waste, fraud and abuse in hospice reinforce our prior views that program integrity, instead of the sufficiency of…

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April 23, 2026

RAPID Device Coverage: Rebrand or Brand New?

By John Leppard

The joint CMS / FDA press release this morning outlining the Regulatory Alignment for Predictable and Immediate Device (RAPID) coverage pathway for breakthrough medical devices strikes us more as a rebranding of the existing transitional…

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April 21, 2026

Another State PBM Ban on Pharmacies Invites Headline Noise – and Ultimately Legal Challenges [CVS, CI, UNH]

By Beth Steindecker

While the passage of another ban on PBM ownership of pharmacies – this time in Tennessee – could reignite some headline risk for CVS, CI, and UNH, we think the actual risk of it going…

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