June 18, 2026

[HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, ALHC, MOH, CLOV, CI]: CMS Recalculates 2026 Star Ratings in Light of CLOV Ruling, But Financial and Legal Questions Remain

By Beth Steindecker

CMS informed Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, ALHC, MOH, CLOV] that it is voluntarily recalculating their CY26 Star Ratings, which determine CY27 Quality Bonus Payments (QBP). Under the agency’s approach, released…

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June 17, 2026

(NVDA, AMD, GOOGL, META, CRWV, Anthropic, OpenAI) AI Regulation: State Patchwork, Federal Export Controls, and NDAA Chip Watch

By Joe Lieber

We remain skeptical that Congress will pass comprehensive federal AI legislation this year or likely next year, leaving companies to navigate a state-by-state regulatory patchwork since no current federal law exists that broadly preempts state…

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June 17, 2026

Rx MFN: Sector Risk Inbound?

By John Leppard

Yesterday’s disclosure by the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) that it is reviewing a finalized Medicare Part D Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy suggests the administration likely intends to move forward with its late…

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June 16, 2026

EW: TAVR Draft Coverage Puts & Takes

By John Leppard

CMS’s draft coverage policy for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) appears largely consistent with our initial expectations, likely bringing some incremental upside as well. If finalized largely as proposed in Sept., as seems probable, we…

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June 15, 2026

[OSCR, CNC, ELV, HCA, THC, CYH, UHS]: ACA Court Win Offers Limited Relief as Obamacare Enrollment Headwinds Remain

By Beth Steindecker

Last week’s ACA-related court ruling permanently, which enjoined key portions of the CY25 Obamacare regulation, may initially reassure insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV] and hospitals [HCA, THC, CYH, UHS, ARDT] about certain enrollment-related program integrity headwinds….

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June 15, 2026

Political Potpourri: Iran Deal and Potential Delays, USMCA Risks Build, and Shutdown Headlines Loom

By Joe Lieber

We see three Washington policy-related risks that are likely to generate headline risk, including: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement that will probably be extended beyond the 60-day timeframe and should hold at least through the midterm…

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June 15, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Compressed Calendar Threatens Reconciliation 3.0, CLARITY, and Tech Policy

By Joe Lieber

The Senate is in session, and the House is out this week, which matters because the calendar is becoming the biggest obstacle for several Republican and industry-backed priorities that still need meaningful floor time before…

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June 11, 2026

[EW, MDT, ABT] TAVR: Incremental Gains From Expected Coverage

By John Leppard

In advance of the CMS draft coverage decision for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) due June 15 (final Sept. 15), we expect policy changes that – while positive – may be more incremental in their…

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June 11, 2026

(RTX, LMT, GD, BAE, BA) Defense Spending Update

By Joe Lieber

Despite President Trump’s comments on Truth Social about the need to pass Reconciliation 3.0 for an additional $350 billion in defense spending, we think he will be disappointed. We continue our long-held belief that: Defense…

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June 10, 2026

Hospitals, ASCs, Imaging Centers: Medicare Risk in Summer OPPS Proposal? [THC, HCA, CYH, ARDT, UHS, SGRY, UNH, RDNT]

By Beth Steindecker

While Medicaid and ACA enrollment concerns have dominated the policy overhang for hospitals this year, Medicare-related risks could move higher on investors’ radar with the release of CY27 hospital outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS) proposed…

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June 10, 2026

Trump and the USMCA

By Joe Lieber

We wanted to provide our thoughts on comments made by President Trump earlier this afternoon when he said he was not looking to renew the USMCA. We do not interpret Trump’s comments as signaling an…

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June 10, 2026

GKOS iDose: MAC Pushback Persists

By John Leppard

We see little reason to alter our base case regarding Medicare coverage of GKOS’s iDose following yesterday’s first contractor open meeting on the five-MAC draft LCD issued in late May. While we believe the MACs…

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June 8, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Reconciliation 3.0, Crypto Tax, Defense Right-to-Repair, and NextNav

By Joe Lieber

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with the House expected to pass the $72 billion Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reconciliation bill after weeks of…

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June 3, 2026

DXCM: What to Expect When You’re Expecting CGM Coverage

By John Leppard

In advance of Dexcom’s (DXCM) readout of its CONNECT RCT this weekend, which management positions as a “powerful anchor” for broader Medicare CGM coverage in “all people with diabetes,” we ultimately expect a material increase…

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June 2, 2026

[CNC, MOH, ELV, HCA, THC, CYH] Medicaid Work Requirements: Deferment to States with Tighter Oversight in 2028; CMS Projects 15% Enrollment Decline

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s long-awaited interim final rule implementing the One Big Beautiful Bill’s (OBBB) Medicaid Community Engagement (CE) requirements largely aligns with our expectations that CMS would defer to states on program design and implementation, which we…

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