October 6, 2025

Still Optimistic on Obamacare Subsidy Fix with Reforms, But Less So on Age Rating and Reinsurance [OSCR, CNC, ELV, CYH, THC, HCA, UHS, ACHC]

By Beth Steindecker

Nearly a week into the government shutdown, with the parties dug in, we continue to expect Congress to “fix” the enhanced Obamacare subsidy cliff, benefiting exchange insurers, hospitals, and behavioral health providers. The questions remain…

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October 6, 2025

(DE, ADM, MOS, TSCO) The Farm Complex: Washington to the Rescue

By Joe Lieber

We see four policy-related events that should be positive to the farm complex, including companies like Deere (DE), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Mosaic (MOS) and Tractor Supply (TSCO). Those events include: An event by the…

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October 6, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Shutdown, Farmer Aid and Drug Pricing

By Joe Lieber

While the government shutdown is the top issue in Washington this week, we could also expect: 1) positive news out of the White House on aid for farmers, which is likely positive for the farm…

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October 1, 2025

Rx Pricing: More Shoes to Drop or Clearing Event?

By John Leppard

The White House’s Rx pricing agreement with PFE yesterday – with the promise of additional company deals next week – may provide industry with some incremental goodwill, but we are dubious that it takes broader…

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September 29, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: A Government Shutdown, Liquidity, Trade and the NDAA

By Joe Lieber

Two issues are likely to dominate Washington this week: 1) the likelihood of a government shutdown; and 2) the fallout of Trump’s recent trade announcements. Additionally, we expect the Senate to resume consideration of the…

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September 29, 2025

Medicare Advantage: CMS’ Stable Message Eclipsed by Falling Enrollment Forecast, But A Wait and See Attitude Is Appropriate

By Beth Steindecker

While reports over the weekend about CMS’s Friday release of the Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Plan (PDP) premium, deductible and other information for the 2026 plan year focused on the 2.6% projected cut…

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September 26, 2025

Medicare Advantage RADV Audits in Legal Limbo, But Don’t Discount Its Resurrection [HUM, UNH, CVS, CNC, ELV, ALHC]

By Beth Steindecker

Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, CVS, CNC, ELV, ALHC] received some positive legal news that for now neutralizes the concern of widespread Medicare audits and potential concomitant recoupments. However, yesterday’s federal district court ruling…

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September 25, 2025

Obamacare Fix: Still Optimistic, But Not Clean or Near Term [OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, UHS, ACHC]

By Beth Steindecker

We continue to be optimistic and think the odds have risen above 50% that Congress later this year reaches a compromise to “fix” the expiring enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which would further remove some of the…

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September 25, 2025

Rx Pricing: MFN Demo Incoming?

By John Leppard

The White House’s Office of Management & Budget’s (OMB) disclosure this morning that it is reviewing what appears to be a Most Favored Nation (MFN) drug pricing model is consistent with our long-held expectations, if…

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September 22, 2025

DC Quick Takes: Govt. Shutdown, NDAA, Durbin 2.0 (V, MA), Interest on Fed Reserves (JPM, C, BAC, WFC), and GAIN AI Act (NVDA, AMD)

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that the odds of a government shutdown are at least 75%, though that might be too low given that Congress is out of session this week. The Senate is scheduled back…

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September 18, 2025

Odds and Impacts of a Government Shutdown

By Joe Lieber

We are bumping our odds to ~75% (up from 65%) that a government shutdown occurs on Oct. 1. This is partially in light of the Democrats’ funding proposal, which includes:   A continuing resolution (CR) funding…

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September 15, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Shutdown/Funding, NDAA, Healthcare, and the HIRE Act

By Joe Lieber

Both chambers of Congress are in session this week before a scheduled recess next week for Rosh Hashana, though we suspect that break will be cut short given the need to avoid a government shutdown…

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September 11, 2025

[EXAS, GH] Colorectal Cancer Coverage to Get More Crowded

By John Leppard

With CMS reopening its coverage policy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening yesterday after the close, it seems likely that the space will get a bit more crowded for EXAS and GH, as we would expect…

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September 10, 2025

Status of Medicaid Work Requirements Among States [CNC, MOH, CYH, HCA, THC, UHS, ACHC, MMS]

By Beth Steindecker

Headline risk to Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH], hospitals [CYH, HCA, THC], behavioral providers [UHS, ACHC], and Medicaid contractors [MMS] is likely to ramp up in the coming months as 15 states take affirmative steps toward…

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September 10, 2025

Trade Potpourri: IEEPA, GOOG and the EU, China and India and the GAIN AI Act (NVDA, AMD)

By Joe Lieber

Below our are thoughts on the following recent trade issue developments: The U.S. Supreme Court decision to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of a lower court ruling invalidating the president’s reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs under…

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