May 15, 2025

NIH & Lab Tools: Law vs Politics

By John Leppard

Nearly five hours of testimony from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. yesterday on the administration’s FY26 budget request leaves us with little additional confidence in the overall trajectory for NIH spending and – by extension –…

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May 15, 2025

IRA Green Energy Tax Provisions: House Mark Likely Worst-Case Scenario

By Joe Lieber

We view the IRA green energy tax credits in the House Ways and Means Committee as a worst-case scenario. We believe that, in aggregate, these tax breaks won’t get worse when the Senate cobbles together…

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May 13, 2025

Reconciliation Bill Moving Forward: House Business Tax Provisions

By Joe Lieber

We continue to assign high odds that the reconciliation / tax bill will pass by late July / early August. The bill included many corporate and individual tax provisions. We focus on the corporate provisions…

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May 13, 2025

[ELV, CNC, MOH, UNH, CVS] CMS Managed Care Provider Tax Proposal

By Beth Steindecker

Yesterday’s CMS proposal confirms our suspicion that the agency would seek to tighten state provider taxes – primarily those on managed care [ELV, UNH, CNC, MOH, CVS, CI, OSCR]– used to secure sizable federal Medicaid…

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May 13, 2025

Trade Update: Reciprocal Tariffs in the Courts

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs face a real risk from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) case, V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, which will be heard today. In what might…

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May 12, 2025

Rx Pricing’s Lucy & the Football Moment?

By John Leppard

Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…

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May 12, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly—May 12 through May 16: Reconciliation, Medicare MFN, and Trade

By Joe Lieber

This week is an important week for the reconciliation / tax bill as three important committees plan to mark up their versions of the bill. In addition, President Trump is scheduled to sign an executive…

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May 12, 2025

Healthcare & Reconciliation: Worst Case Avoided

By Beth Steindecker

The House Energy & Commerce Committee’s (E&C) reconciliation draft (text and summary) seems to largely align with our expectations regarding cuts / risks in Medicaid, Obamacare, and pharmacy benefit managers (PBM).  While there were still…

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May 8, 2025

Trade Update: China Trade Talks, Reciprocal Tariffs and Semiconductors

By Joe Lieber

On the heels of the UK trade deal announced this morning, we have the following updates on: China trade talks; The U.S. Court of International Trade reciprocal trade case; and Potential semiconductor tariffs. On trade…

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May 7, 2025

Rx MFN Announcement Monday?

By John Leppard

Apropos of our note on the subject earlier today, there are reports this afternoon that as early as Monday, May 12 President Trump “is expected to sign an executive order directing aides to pursue ……

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May 7, 2025

PBMs: Death by a Thousand Cuts? [CI, CVS, UNH, ELV, GDRX]

By Beth Steindecker

The list of potential state and federal legislative threats to pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) [CI, CVS, UNH, ELV, GDRX] seems to be growing, even though there has not been widespread enactment of these bills. Putting…

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May 7, 2025

Reconciliation Update: Corporate Tax Provisions

By Joe Lieber

We continue to give ~75% odds that the reconciliation/ tax bill is likely to pass Congress this summer and to include many other tax provisions than just those from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs…

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May 7, 2025

Rx Most Favored Nation (MFN) Estimates

By John Leppard

We continue to assign ~35% odds to Congress including Medicaid Most Favored Nation (MFN) price controls into its broader reconciliation bill given: (A) the complexities of such a policy; (B) the expedited timeline lawmakers are…

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May 6, 2025

Optimism for Longer Term Resolution on Obamacare eAPTCs Remains but CMS Suggests Expiration [OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV, HCA, THC]

By Beth Steindecker

Notwithstanding a recent CMS memo advising insurers to design their Obamacare plan bids assuming expiration of the enhanced premium subsidies at year-end, we remain optimistic that Congress ultimately settles on a middle ground (revision and…

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May 5, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly—May 5 through May 9: Reconciliation, Trade, the Debt Limit, FY26 Spending and Crypto

By Joe Lieber

This week, with the not-so-surprising postponements of key House committee reconciliation markups, the focus will be on cobbling together a reconciliation bill. We could see a major trade deal announced this week. There is some…

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