May 15, 2025
Nearly five hours of testimony from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. yesterday on the administration’s FY26 budget request leaves us with little additional confidence in the overall trajectory for NIH spending and – by extension –…
May 15, 2025
We view the IRA green energy tax credits in the House Ways and Means Committee as a worst-case scenario. We believe that, in aggregate, these tax breaks won’t get worse when the Senate cobbles together…
May 13, 2025
We continue to assign high odds that the reconciliation / tax bill will pass by late July / early August. The bill included many corporate and individual tax provisions. We focus on the corporate provisions…
May 13, 2025
Yesterday’s CMS proposal confirms our suspicion that the agency would seek to tighten state provider taxes – primarily those on managed care [ELV, UNH, CNC, MOH, CVS, CI, OSCR]– used to secure sizable federal Medicaid…
May 13, 2025
We continue to believe that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs face a real risk from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) case, V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, which will be heard today. In what might…
May 12, 2025
Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…
May 12, 2025
This week is an important week for the reconciliation / tax bill as three important committees plan to mark up their versions of the bill. In addition, President Trump is scheduled to sign an executive…
May 12, 2025
The House Energy & Commerce Committee’s (E&C) reconciliation draft (text and summary) seems to largely align with our expectations regarding cuts / risks in Medicaid, Obamacare, and pharmacy benefit managers (PBM). While there were still…
May 8, 2025
On the heels of the UK trade deal announced this morning, we have the following updates on: China trade talks; The U.S. Court of International Trade reciprocal trade case; and Potential semiconductor tariffs. On trade…
May 7, 2025
Apropos of our note on the subject earlier today, there are reports this afternoon that as early as Monday, May 12 President Trump “is expected to sign an executive order directing aides to pursue ……
May 7, 2025
The list of potential state and federal legislative threats to pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) [CI, CVS, UNH, ELV, GDRX] seems to be growing, even though there has not been widespread enactment of these bills. Putting…
May 7, 2025
We continue to give ~75% odds that the reconciliation/ tax bill is likely to pass Congress this summer and to include many other tax provisions than just those from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs…
May 7, 2025
We continue to assign ~35% odds to Congress including Medicaid Most Favored Nation (MFN) price controls into its broader reconciliation bill given: (A) the complexities of such a policy; (B) the expedited timeline lawmakers are…
May 6, 2025
Notwithstanding a recent CMS memo advising insurers to design their Obamacare plan bids assuming expiration of the enhanced premium subsidies at year-end, we remain optimistic that Congress ultimately settles on a middle ground (revision and…
May 5, 2025
This week, with the not-so-surprising postponements of key House committee reconciliation markups, the focus will be on cobbling together a reconciliation bill. We could see a major trade deal announced this week. There is some…