November 20, 2024

[UNH, HUM, ALHC, AGL, PRVA, MD]: Trump’s Unorthodox CMS Pick Reinforces Already Anticipated Support for Medicare Advantage and Physicians

By Beth Steindecker

President Trump’s surprise and unorthodox nomination of Dr. Mehmet Oz to be CMS administrator, whom we presume will likely be confirmed, affords somewhat of a blank slate for others in the administration to fill in…

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November 19, 2024

DC Quick Takes: Govt. Funding, Credit Card Swipe Fees, SNAP Program, DOGE and Crypto Legislation

By Joe Lieber

With Congress in the second week of the lame duck session and as President-elect Trump continues to make headlines, there are several issues important to investors that we want to touch base on, including:   How…

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November 19, 2024

Healthcare Extenders in FY25 Spending Bill: What Is Likely, Unlikely or Toss-Up?

By Beth Steindecker

With likelihood growing that Congress focuses on emergency spending and a short-term continuing resolution funding the government into Q1 next year during this lame duck period, we expect that translates to Congress punting on nearly-annual,…

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November 15, 2024

Trump Appointees: Our Take

By Joe Lieber

If taken individually, we would expect Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. all to lose their confirmation battles and either have their names withdrawn for consideration or lose a Senate floor vote….

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November 15, 2024

(DKNG, CZR, FLUT, MGM, PENN) Texas Sports Gaming Update

By Joe Lieber

Investors should keep an eye on whether Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R-TX), an opponent of legalizing sports betting, is appointed to a position in the Trump administration, as some reports have speculated given his…

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November 15, 2024

RFK to HHS: Biopharma / Lifesciences Smoke or Fire?

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: We are initially skeptical that Trump’s selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) to lead HHS can survive Senate confirmation but, if we are wrong, would note that any HHS secretary is constrained…

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November 14, 2024

(ENSG, PACS, OHI, CTRE, SBRA) Nursing Home Relief from Minimum Staffing Rule Still Likely But as Part of FY25 Spending Bill

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways:  We still expect nursing homes and their post-acute care REIT landlords to secure a reprieve from the Biden CMS rule imposing minimum nurse staffing requirements on these long-term facilities. However, we see that…

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November 14, 2024

Macro Sequencing: Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and a Quick Take on Nominations

By Joe Lieber

Key Takeaways:   We see the ~60% China tariffs being implemented before the tax cuts are passed and likely within the first 100 days.   We believe there’s a very good chance tax cuts pass…

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November 14, 2024

Skin Substitutes: Relief for COLOB.DC, Headiwnds for CTEC.LN & ORGO

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: The coordinated release of finalized skin substitute local coverage determinations (LCDs) from all seven Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) this morning is largely in keeping with our expectations, with Coloplast (COLOB.DC) seeing the greatest…

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November 13, 2024

EXAS, GH: Next Steps on Next Gen Test Rates

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: Following the split market reaction to EXAS [-29%] and GH [+25%] 3Q24 earnings reports last week, and investors looking to the opportunities associated with next generation colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests Cologuard Plus…

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November 13, 2024

Louisiana 51% Sports Betting Tax Hike Bill Withdrawn

By Joe Lieber

In positive news for DKNG, CZR, MGM and PENN, Louisiana state Rep. Roger Wilder (R) withdrew his bill this morning that would hike taxes on sports gambling from 15% to 51%.  Yesterday, we wrote here…

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November 12, 2024

(UNH, AMED) Reported Threat of DOJ Complaint Brings Overhang and Extended Invitation to Negotiate

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways: We continue to expect that UNH’s acquisition AMED will be completed, despite reports that the DOJ is preparing to sue to block the $3.3B deal on antitrust concerns. While clearly a setback, this…

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November 12, 2024

(DKNG, CZR, FLUT, MGM, PENN) Don’t Bet on Louisiana’s 51% Tax Hike

By Joe Lieber

We doubt that legislation introduced yesterday by State Rep. Roger Wilder (R) to increase the sports Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) tax from 15% to 51% in Louisiana will be passed in the special session, which…

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November 10, 2024

Lantheus (LNTH): CMS Corrects Payments, Pylarify Rates Down 46%

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: Consistent with our pre- and post-rule expectations [here, here, here], CMS this weekend has updated the payment tables released with its CY25 hospital outpatient rule on Nov. 1, reducing the per unit rate…

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November 8, 2024

DC Quick Takes: Lame Duck, House Elections Update and Beyond

By Joe Lieber

Congress is back next week for the lame duck session and there is a laundry list of items that various constituencies would like to see enacted. Meanwhile, it still looks like the Republicans will maintain…

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