Macro / Misc.

There is a lot going on in DC this week as Washington and Europe continue to digest the fallout from the Trump / Vance / Zelenskyy Oval Office disaster on Friday. On the list includes…

We continue to believe that full expensing / deductibility of the R&D tax credit in the year expenses occur will be part of the massive reconciliation / tax bill we expect to see enacted in…

Comments by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) at a hearing yesterday reinforce our view that changes to the de minimis rule, which will likely be negative for FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS),…

House passage of its FY25 budget resolution last night increases the odds that Congress will go forward with the one-bill reconciliation strategy, which is likely to delay additional funding ($100-$150 billion over four years) for…

Much of President Trump’s “American First Investment Policy” memorandum released late Friday is in-line with expectations, though there are some notable provisions for certain sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, hypersonics, aerospace, advanced…

The action this week belongs to the House, which was out of session last week.  On Tuesday, the lower chamber is expected to vote on its FY25 budget resolution, which would ignite the one-bill reconciliation…

With Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) all down ~5% or more yesterday on fears that Congress will hike taxes on the industry as part of this year’s tax…

We think Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal to cut 8% of the defense budget over the next five years will set up a clash with congressional Republicans, who have called for an increase in defense…

This week, we expect the Senate to consider their FY25 budget resolution that would set off the two-reconciliation bill strategy. In addition, Kash Patel is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director…

The House Republican budget released yesterday includes potential cuts to the food stamp / SNAP program that could be as high as $230 billion over ten years, which would be a negative for Walmart (WMT),…