March 24, 2025
Capital Policy Weekly-March 24-28: Trade, Budgets, Taxes and Noms
Congress is back in session for three weeks after a weeklong recess. Focus this week will likely be on: President Trump’s tariff announcement next week on April 2. Negotiations between the House and Senate on…
March 20, 2025
Tariffs, Tax Cuts and Deficits
We continue to believe some of President Trump’s tariffs will stay in place longer than the markets seem to expect (see below) and won’t be negotiated away in short order. We also continue to anticipate…
March 14, 2025
After Govt. Shutdown Avoided, Will Next Year’s Spending Process Look Similar?
With Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) relenting on passage of what DC is calling a “year-long” continuing resolution (CR) through Sept. 30, as we expected, we think the same scenario could play out next…
March 12, 2025
Government Shutdown Now likely?
Moments ago, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) stated that that Republicans don’t have the 60 votes in the Senate to pass the seven-month continuing resolution (CR), which some speculate could lead to a shutdown….
March 11, 2025
DC Quick Takes: Shutdown, Tariffs, Taxes, Deficit, Debt Limit and Special Elections
Below we give our quick thoughts on: 1) shutdown odds; 2) tariffs; 3) the tax bill; 4) extent deficit reduction is really in the cards; 5) the debt limit and how that is likely to…
March 10, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: March 10-14: Shutdown / Govt. Spending Pushes Out Reconciliation Action
The House and Senate will be focused on passing a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through September 30, the end of the fiscal year, before beginning a weeklong recess. We doubt there will…
March 7, 2025
(FLTR, DKNG, MGM, CZR) Sports Betting Update
Sports betting companies such as FLTR, DKNG, MGM and CZR received negative news today when legislation to legalize sports gambling was killed in Georgia. In addition, there is the risk of tax hikes on these…
March 3, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: March 3-7: State of the Union (Like) Address, Trade, Budget, Reconciliation, a Shutdown and More
There is a lot going on in DC this week as Washington and Europe continue to digest the fallout from the Trump / Vance / Zelenskyy Oval Office disaster on Friday. On the list includes…
February 28, 2025
R&D Tax Credit: Companies Likely to Get a Boost
We continue to believe that full expensing / deductibility of the R&D tax credit in the year expenses occur will be part of the massive reconciliation / tax bill we expect to see enacted in…
February 26, 2025
(FDX, UPS, AMZN, PDD, Shein) De Minimis Rule Still in DC’s Crosshairs
Comments by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) at a hearing yesterday reinforce our view that changes to the de minimis rule, which will likely be negative for FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS),…