Macro / Misc.

 We continue to believe that stablecoin legislation, known as the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) in the Senate, is likely to pass in that chamber in the next couple of weeks, creating a regulatory framework for…

Given Trump’s trade pronouncement on the EU and Apple (AAPL) today, we want to provide an update on trade and tariffs. We see a real potential for EU tariffs to go into effect at least…

We think Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to pull off passing the reconciliation / tax bill this week before Congress goes out on its Memorial Day recess, though getting there is going to take…

We continue to assign high odds that the reconciliation / tax bill will pass by late July / early August. The bill included many corporate and individual tax provisions. We focus on the corporate provisions…

We continue to believe that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs face a real risk from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) case, V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, which will be heard today. In what might…

This week is an important week for the reconciliation / tax bill as three important committees plan to mark up their versions of the bill. In addition, President Trump is scheduled to sign an executive…

On the heels of the UK trade deal announced this morning, we have the following updates on: China trade talks; The U.S. Court of International Trade reciprocal trade case; and Potential semiconductor tariffs. On trade…

We continue to give ~75% odds that the reconciliation/ tax bill is likely to pass Congress this summer and to include many other tax provisions than just those from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs…

This week, with the not-so-surprising postponements of key House committee reconciliation markups, the focus will be on cobbling together a reconciliation bill. We could see a major trade deal announced this week. There is some…

We believe President Trump’s “skinny budget” proposal, released today, is mostly dead on arrival and could easily lead to a government shutdown at year’s end or early next year. We expect a more detailed version…