December 11, 2024
[CVS, CI, UNH] PBMs: Proposed Ban on Pharmacy Ownership, New FTC Chair Nominee, Trump’s Comments, Healthcare Extenders, Oh My!
Key Takeaways: While we had expected pharmacy benefit managers [PBMs] to remain in the legislative / regulatory crosshairs during the lame duck and into the Trump administration, recent developments confirm that the anti-PBM sentiment is…
December 9, 2024
[WBA, CVS] SCOTUS Sides with Arkansas Law; For Now, Contract Pharmacies Have Upper Hand vs. Pharma
This morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) afforded a win to state laws protecting the use of contract retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI, RAD) that arehired by 340B hospitals and clinics…
December 6, 2024
[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, AGL] Expectations for CY26 Medicare Advantage Advance Notice
KEY TAKEAWAYS: We expect the proposed YoY change in the CY26 benchmarks for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans is likely to be relatively flat, with a range between -1% and +1% that excludes coding trend, but…
December 3, 2024
[WBA, CVS, WMT] 340B Case on Deck at SCOTUS Conference; Regardless of Resolution, Target Remains on 340B
We could see some short-term positive news for retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI) if the Supreme Court decides not to hear the appeal of PhRMA v. McClain, a development that…
November 25, 2024
[CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, HCA, CYH, UHS]: Growing Overhang from Medicaid Legislative Reforms, But Watch for Vulnerable GOP Pushback
Key Takeaways: The risk overhang from potential Medicaid reforms to managed care organizations, hospitals, behavioral facilities, and other providers focused on these low-income enrollees will likely grow as the Trump administration staffs up and Congress…
November 20, 2024
[UNH, HUM, ALHC, AGL, PRVA, MD]: Trump’s Unorthodox CMS Pick Reinforces Already Anticipated Support for Medicare Advantage and Physicians
President Trump’s surprise and unorthodox nomination of Dr. Mehmet Oz to be CMS administrator, whom we presume will likely be confirmed, affords somewhat of a blank slate for others in the administration to fill in…
November 19, 2024
Healthcare Extenders in FY25 Spending Bill: What Is Likely, Unlikely or Toss-Up?
With likelihood growing that Congress focuses on emergency spending and a short-term continuing resolution funding the government into Q1 next year during this lame duck period, we expect that translates to Congress punting on nearly-annual,…
November 14, 2024
(ENSG, PACS, OHI, CTRE, SBRA) Nursing Home Relief from Minimum Staffing Rule Still Likely But as Part of FY25 Spending Bill
Key Takeaways: We still expect nursing homes and their post-acute care REIT landlords to secure a reprieve from the Biden CMS rule imposing minimum nurse staffing requirements on these long-term facilities. However, we see that…
November 12, 2024
(UNH, AMED) Reported Threat of DOJ Complaint Brings Overhang and Extended Invitation to Negotiate
Key Takeaways: We continue to expect that UNH’s acquisition AMED will be completed, despite reports that the DOJ is preparing to sue to block the $3.3B deal on antitrust concerns. While clearly a setback, this…
November 7, 2024
[OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV] Enhanced Obamacare Exchange Subsidies – How Might They Stay?
Key Takeaways: We think investors exposed to insurers in the ACA exchange markets (OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV) are underestimating the odds that the next Congress temporarily extends some of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to focus…