Macro / Misc.

The big news we expect out of Washington this week, with Congress in session, includes:   A release by the Senate Finance Committee of its tax, Medicaid, and perhaps Medicare mark for the reconciliation bill….

Put us in the camp that the Trump-Musk dust up will have little impact on passage of the reconciliation bill. By last night, there appeared to be an attempt to lower the temperature on both…

In light of the successful—at least so far— Circle Internet Group (CRCL) IPO today, we wanted to offer an update on stablecoin legislation (S. 394, the GENIUS Act), which benefits CRCL and which we believe…

Congress returns this week after its weeklong Memorial Day recess, and the Senate will work on the House-passed reconciliation bill in earnest behind the scenes while the stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, will probably reach…

We have the following thoughts about the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement the reciprocal tariffs and how it might…

 We continue to believe that stablecoin legislation, known as the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) in the Senate, is likely to pass in that chamber in the next couple of weeks, creating a regulatory framework for…

Given Trump’s trade pronouncement on the EU and Apple (AAPL) today, we want to provide an update on trade and tariffs. We see a real potential for EU tariffs to go into effect at least…

We think Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to pull off passing the reconciliation / tax bill this week before Congress goes out on its Memorial Day recess, though getting there is going to take…

We continue to assign high odds that the reconciliation / tax bill will pass by late July / early August. The bill included many corporate and individual tax provisions. We focus on the corporate provisions…

We continue to believe that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs face a real risk from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) case, V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, which will be heard today. In what might…