Macro / Misc.

With the House and Senate back in session this week, the focus will be on the fallout from Friday’s ruling to invalidate President Trump’s fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, House passage of the National Defense Authorization…

In our view, if President Trump insist, we believe that Stephen Miran can be confirmed by the Senate before the September 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the market already anticipates that the…

We have the following takeaways on trade and tariffs regarding President Trump’s interview on CNBC this morning. While Trump mentioned that he would raise tariffs on India over the next 24 hours since India continues…

With the August 1 tariff deadline tomorrow, we have the following takeaways from our trade and tariff conference call that we held yesterday morning with Derek Scissors. A transcript is available upon request. Takeaways Derek…

We wanted to highlight our expectations for defense spending in FY26 and the upcoming legislative schedule for the defense sector.  Bottom line: we still believe that a continuing resolution (CR) funding defense at FY25 levels…

With the House out of session until September 2 and the Senate scheduled to leave for its August recess at the end of this week, trade seems likely to continue to dominate the headlines as…

We wanted to provide an update on the potential breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster (LVY) after receiving some client questions on the topic. Our bottom line is that we see a 60-65% probability that…

We expect trade, appropriations and the Epstein controversy to dominate the news flow this week. Both the House and Senate are in session this week with the Senate tentatively scheduled to consider a group of…

We want to provide an update on state legislation that would allow ride-hail drivers for companies such as Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) to unionize in California. We think that California legislation, AB 1340, the…

We want to highlight four issues this morning: 1) Russian sanctions; 2) trade; 3) Fed Chair Jerome Powell; and 4) increased T-bill demand as a result of the GENIUS Act—all four of which for the…