Macro / Misc.

With Nvidia (NVDA) exports to China once again making headlines, we see roughly a 40–50% probability that the company will be permitted to export China-specific versions of its Blackwell chips as early as next year. …

We continue to give ~60% odds that the Trump administration sees a partial loss in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) case, which will be argued before the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) tomorrow. However, as…

We see three topics that will be front and center in Washington this week: The government shutdown, which we believe will end this week. Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and the redistricting…

With President Trump in Asia and trade agreements expected between the U.S. and various countries, including at least a narrow deal with China, we held a conference call yesterday with trade expert Dr. Derek Scissors. …

This week’s main policy focus will be on: 1) trade; 2) the Fed’s decision on interest rates, where a 25-bps cut is widely anticipated on Wednesday; and 3) the government shutdown. President Trump is in…

We continue to see a few positive developments for the farm complex and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ comments late yesterday that the administration was going to provide $3 billion in aid to farmers from…

The top story in Washington this week remains the government shutdown, but a potential meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov in talks to try and end the…

We have the following thoughts about various updates on the trade front: We continue to believe that the recent trade / tariff tit for tat by China and the U.S. is mostly posturing. We see…

We expect both the continued government shutdown and the U.S./China trade flare up that began on Friday to dominate Washington’s attention this week. Keep in mind, the Senate is in session this week, starting on…

Today we look at four market relevant items, including: 1) update on the government shutdown; 2) potential stimulus from Washington, which might be offset from a bigger rescission; and 3) a court case that could…