Macro / Misc.

Much of President Trump’s “American First Investment Policy” memorandum released late Friday is in-line with expectations, though there are some notable provisions for certain sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, hypersonics, aerospace, advanced…

The action this week belongs to the House, which was out of session last week.  On Tuesday, the lower chamber is expected to vote on its FY25 budget resolution, which would ignite the one-bill reconciliation…

With Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) all down ~5% or more yesterday on fears that Congress will hike taxes on the industry as part of this year’s tax…

We think Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal to cut 8% of the defense budget over the next five years will set up a clash with congressional Republicans, who have called for an increase in defense…

This week, we expect the Senate to consider their FY25 budget resolution that would set off the two-reconciliation bill strategy. In addition, Kash Patel is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director…

The House Republican budget released yesterday includes potential cuts to the food stamp / SNAP program that could be as high as $230 billion over ten years, which would be a negative for Walmart (WMT),…

Trade, budget reconciliation, and nominations are likely to dominate Washington this week. Meanwhile, current government funding expires on March 14 and Republicans and Democrats are still reportedly very far apart on top-line spending numbers for…

News that the Senate is looking to mark up a budget resolution as early as next week reinforces our view that the Congress is going to pass two reconciliation bills as opposed to one.  We…

At this early stage, we give tossup odds to Governor Mike DeWine’s (R-OH) budget proposal released yesterday, raising the state’s tax rate on sports betting from 20% to 40%, becoming law.  The budget now goes…

Both chambers of Congress are in session this week, but tariffs are likely to dominate the news flow. Meanwhile: Congressional leaders are trying to reach an agreement on FY25 spending levels. The House Budget Committees…