Macro / Misc.

We continue to expect that a Massachusetts ballot measure affecting Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) is very likely to pass, but we believe it shows that the gig companies are winning the regulatory battle.    Meanwhile,…

As we head into the last few days of the 2024 election, we continue to believe that former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris. We see the Republicans picking…

We believe that the most bearish views on fiscal policy and deficit implications of the various election scenarios are unlikely to come to fruition. In short, even if the bond market doesn’t keep a check…

While the main focus of the upcoming lame duck session, beginning Nov. 12, is for Congress to address a FY25 government funding bill, we count no fewer than 15 other issues impacting the financial markets…

While the presidential race is basically a tossup, we recently moved our odds to slightly favor Trump (see note here). With that in mind, we offer a comprehensive list of potential candidates for key Cabinet…

While the outcome of the presidential election hovers around the 50/50 mark, we are moving our odds from a slight advantage for Vice President Kamala Harris to one for Donald Trump. Republicans are very likely…

We continue to give the Republicans a ~70% chance of winning the Senate even as two Republican incumbents, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) have recently moved into our top 10 Senate races…

We want to offer a competing view to some comments in a recent CNBC.com article highlighting that tariffs by President Trump may come sooner than expected if he wins in November. We, in fact, think…

Despite comments during an earnings call yesterday by Tilray’s (TLRY) CEO, who said with regard to the two presidential candidates and the elections that “something will happen in regards to Federal legalization, whether it’s medical…

With our view that the odds slightly favor Vice President Kamala Harris winning the presidency in November (see here), we offer a comprehensive list of potential candidates for key Cabinet and other important positions below. …