Macro / Misc.

We continue to believe that Congress is likely to pass a massive $5 trillion- plus tax bill that would extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA). We…

While most of the action in DC this week will be ceremonial with Congress certifying the election of President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, much of the talk in town will be on the…

When Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) initially pulled his negotiating continuing resolution (CR) with the Democrats, our view was that a government shutdown was unlikely.  Yes, we might have technically had one over the weekend, but…

Despite all the criticism, especially from President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance and Elon Musk, we do not believe there will be a government shutdown this week and expect Congress to pass a continuing resolution…

We don’t believe today’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing entitled “America’s High-Stakes Bet on Legalized Sports Gambling” does little to move the needle on federal legislation, despite most senators being critical of the industry. In fact,…

Below we provide our key takeaways from a conference call we hosted last week with a former trade official in Trump’s first administration. A transcript of the call is available upon request. Our guest believes…

We don’t see the top long-term 20% capital gains tax or the 20% divided tax rate coming down in the tax bill next year, despite President-elect Trump mentioning this policy goal in response to a…

We believe there’s a 2-in-3 chance that de minimis legislation, which would limit China and other non-market economies from taking advantage of the $800 threshold for which goods come into the U.S. without paying duties,…

Roughly a month ago, we published our outlook for the lame duck session, which included a laundry list of issues ranging from healthcare, business tax provisions, tech items, trade issues (de minimis rule),  and cannabis. …

We have the following comments about President-elect Trump’s posts last night on Truth Social regarding tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada:   We doubt that Trump’s call for an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products due…