Macro / Misc.

There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…

With the House in session this week, but the Senate out, House leaders are expected to continue work on FY2026 appropriations before the Jan. 31 deadline, and a short-term continuing resolution (CR) likely being needed…

This is a busy week in Washington as Congress works through FY2026 appropriations while also advancing several policy items with market relevance. In addition, developments on crypto regulation, Russia sanctions, trade programs, tariffs, and foreign policy are…

Defense is likely to continue benefiting from positive headlines—particularly as President Trump is expected to reiterate his ~$1.5 trillion defense framing in the State of the Union (tentatively scheduled for Feb. 24) and again in his proposed budget (February / early March). However, the most probable outcome remains a materially smaller increase in defense spending constrained by process, timing, and…

Consistent with our prior note, we continue to assign 60%-65% odds that the Trump administration suffers at least a partial loss in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) case currently pending before the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). Importantly, the Court…

As we enter 2026, we highlight the following four states that we believe are the most likely candidates to at least consider raising their online sports betting tax for DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter’s FanDuel (FLUT), MGM…

This is the last week the House and Senate will be in session until the week of January 5. Hence, we see some notable items that investors should be interested in:   House vote on a…

We see growing uncertainty for the trajectory of defense spending beyond FY26 due to several policy-related crosscurrents:  Recent comments from OMB Director Russ Vought signaling potential use of a reconciliation bill next year to increase…

Yesterday’s announcement by the White House to allow Nvidia (NVDA to sell the H200 chip to China reinforces our view that there’s an out of consensus 40-50% probability that NVDA could sell the more advanced…