January 13, 2026
ACA Subsidy Deal Delayed, Not Derailed; 55% Odds Still Intact [OSCR, CNC, THC, CYH, DVA, FRE.DE]
Despite reports this afternoon that a bipartisan compromise on enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies will not be ready this week and is now expected to slip to the week of January 26, we continue to expect…
January 6, 2026
Health Insurers & Providers Outstanding Policy Issues During 1Q26
With the start of the new year and holdover of some key issues from 2025, 1Q26 promises various policy catalysts across the health insurer and provider landscapes, informing company growth and revenue prospects for the…
December 17, 2025
Obamacare Subsidy Developments: Lots of Movement but Still in Same Place for Now; Path Remains for Subsidy Deal in 1Q
Today’s news that four House Republicans joining House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-NY) discharge petition for a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies – and with House GOP leadership narrowly passing its own…
December 4, 2025
ACA Situation Stuck in Place but We Remain Optimistic of Eventual HIX Deal with a Slipping Timeline
The recent fits-and-starts for around a compromise to avert expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) at year-end unsurprisingly remains stalled, with no meaningful concessions from either side’s leaders. As we head into…
November 30, 2025
Home Health: CY26 Medicare Cuts Softened; CY27+ Still Points to Small YoY Declines [PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH]
Home health (HH) agencies [PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH] received meaningful relief in Friday’s final CY26 Medicare HH reimbursement rule, which pares back the proposed aggregate spending cut and rate discounts. However, CMS signals…
November 26, 2025
Medicare Advantage Tech Changes Proposal: RFI Eases Risk Adjustment Concerns, Star Rating Changes Afoot [HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, PRVA, ASTH]
Our read of the proposed Contract Year 2027 Policy and Technical Changes regulation for Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D (fact sheet here), confirms our expectations for a positive regulatory backdrop for 2027 for MA [HUM, ALHC,…
November 24, 2025
ACA HIX Fix: Enactment Odds Improve But Details TBD [OSCR, CNC, ACHC, THC, CYH, UHS, DVA, HQY]
Media reports (here, here, here) indicate that an ACA compromise may be imminent, with President Trump reportedly offering to support extension of the enhanced premium tax subsidies (with limitations) while channeling a portion into health…
November 23, 2025
ASC Wins in Final CMS Rate Rule, Slight Hospital Wins but Lingering Concerns
Ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) [SGRY, AmSurg, THC, HCA, UNH] secured some policy wins in the final CY26 Medicare outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS) rule, consistent with the July proposal (notably a broadened covered procedure list,…
November 20, 2025
Dialysis: Modest Increase & Consistent Rates for Oral Phosphate Binders in Final Medicare Rule [DVA, FRE.DE, American Renal]
CMS’s final CY26 Medicare payment rule for dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, privately held American Renal] largely aligned with expectations. The rule delivers: A slightly higher YoY increase in aggregate spending, reflecting updated inflation and productivity…
November 19, 2025
Finance Committee Hearing: Still Think ACA Subsidy Deal is More Likely Even If Late [OSCR, CNC, CYH, UHS, DVA, FMS, HQY, WBS]
This morning’s Senate Finance Committee hearing on rising healthcare costs did little to break the stalemate on Obamacare, but no one expected a breakthrough today. The hearing primarily served as a venue for both sides…