Tech / TMT

We assign roughly 65% probability that California’s pending legislation, AB 1709, which is a bipartisan ban on kids under 16 years old from creating accounts on social media platforms (META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) that have…

In the past week, the House and Senate have introduced bipartisan legislation known as the MATCH Act, or the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, which poses headline risk for ASML (ASML) and Tokyo Electron (TOELY). The legislative measure is designed to tighten U.S. export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment…

The recent social media verdicts in New Mexico and California raise the valuation question for investors about how far P/Es might fall for META (META) and (Alphabet) GOOGL assuming litigation risks continue and potentially intensifies. History’s answer is that the path isn’t linear. In different cases, it took the market time…

We had the following takeaways from last week’s conference call we hosted on the recent verdicts in the META and GOOGL trials in New Mexico and California with two lawyers who are very familiar with similar Internet cases. A transcript or audio recording of the call is available…

Recent developments on the AI front – including the Trump administration’s recently released AI policy blueprint and a letter made public today from Sens. Jim Banks (R-IN) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), urging an immediate pause in Nvidia (NVDA) AI chip exports to China, highlighting that while there will continue to be a great deal of sound coming out of DC, we’re…

While this morning’s Senate Commerce Committee hearing, entitled “Liability or Deniability? Platform Power as Section 230 Turns 30,” was lively and somewhat surprisingly well attended, we seriously doubt any material erosion of Section 230 protections for social media companies such as Meta (META), Alphabet’s YouTube (GOOGL), and Reddit (RDDT) will pass…

We estimate roughly a 35% probability that Congress will enact a youth online safety legislative package, including the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), COPPA 2.0, and the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) or similar legislation. The combo of these measures would be negative for Snap (SNAP), Roblox (RBLX), Meta (META), and Alphabet’s…

Amazon’s (AMZN) request for additional time to meet its Project Kuiper deployment timeframe has attracted renewed scrutiny from the FCC, given recent comments from FCC Chairman Brendan Carr—including a post on X this week criticizing the company’s opposition to SpaceX’s satellite expansion and…

Yesterday’s announcement by the White House to allow Nvidia (NVDA to sell the H200 chip to China reinforces our view that there’s an out of consensus 40-50% probability that NVDA could sell the more advanced…

We continue to expect that three of the most material non-defense-related items that some members of Congress hoped to include in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will not make the final cut. Those amendments are:  GAIN…