July 23, 2026
(COIN, HOOD, GLXY, CRCL) CLARITY Act: Time Is Running Out
We continue to assign 1-in-3 odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year—and we wonder if that number is too high. The Senate has roughly two weeks to resolve several major disputes before leaving…
July 1, 2026
(NVDA, AMD, ASML, TOELY, AVGO, MRVL) NDAA Tech/AI Amendments Left Out of House Floor Debate
The House Rules Committee did not make the MATCH Act, the Chip Security Act, or the AI Overwatch Act in order as amendments to the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This move…
July 1, 2026
(META, GOOGL, SNAP, PINS) California Softens Under-16 Social Media Bill, but Passage Odds Rise
We have raised our odds to 70% that California’s AB 1709, which would restrict social media companies, including META, GOOGL, SNAP, and PINS, from providing addictive features to users under 16, will become law. AB…
June 23, 2026
(NXST, SBGI, GTN, SSP, DIS, CMCSA, PSKY, FOXA) FCC 39% TV Ownership Cap: Deregulation Is Near-Term; Litigation Risk Is Medium-Term
We believe the FCC is very near to formally eliminating the 39% national television ownership cap, with the final rule now at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within the OMB. The agency…
June 17, 2026
(NVDA, AMD, GOOGL, META, CRWV, Anthropic, OpenAI) AI Regulation: State Patchwork, Federal Export Controls, and NDAA Chip Watch
We remain skeptical that Congress will pass comprehensive federal AI legislation this year or likely next year, leaving companies to navigate a state-by-state regulatory patchwork since no current federal law exists that broadly preempts state…
May 26, 2026
(META, GOOGL, SNAP, STUB, LYV) California Ban on Kids Access to Social Media and 10% Cap on Ticket Resale Like to Advance
We wanted to give you and update on two bills in the California legislature, impacting META, GOOGL, SNAP, STUB, and LYV, that we have been following and which we expect to be considered on the…
May 13, 2026
(NVDA, AMD, BA) Conference Call Takeaways: Trump/Xi Summit
Below are the key takeaways from our conference call on this week’s Trump/Xi summit in Beijing. During the call, we touched on trade in general as well as the USMCA agreement. Our base case remains…
May 13, 2026
(META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) AB 1709 Watch: Timeline and Outlook for California’s Youth Social Media Bill
Below we provide an update on AB 1709, legislation in California that would ban kids under 16 years old from creating accounts on social media platforms (META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) with addictive features. We continue…
May 4, 2026
(META) New Mexico Public Nuisance Remedies Trial Begins – Material Downside Risk and Precedent Implications
The remedies phase of State of New Mexico v. Meta Platforms (META), Inc.—a landmark public-nuisance bench trial—opens this morning in Santa Fe District Court before Judge Bryan Biedscheid, who also oversaw the earlier jury trial…
May 1, 2026
(NVDA, AMD) Congress Adds China Chip Risk, But Trump Likely Wants Flexibility
Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) introduced his version of the AI Overwatch Act yesterday, which would, among other things, impose a two-year ban on sales of high-end AI chips such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell systems to…