Macro / Misc.

We see growing uncertainty for the trajectory of defense spending beyond FY26 due to several policy-related crosscurrents:  Recent comments from OMB Director Russ Vought signaling potential use of a reconciliation bill next year to increase…

Yesterday’s announcement by the White House to allow Nvidia (NVDA to sell the H200 chip to China reinforces our view that there’s an out of consensus 40-50% probability that NVDA could sell the more advanced…

The House and Senate are in session for the next two weeks before taking off for the rest of the year. As for this week, we see the following items that could be important to…

We continue to expect that three of the most material non-defense-related items that some members of Congress hoped to include in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will not make the final cut. Those amendments are:  GAIN…

Congress returns to Washington this week, with little on the formal legislative agenda likely to move markets. Still, investors should keep an eye on the following developments:   A potential Trump administration farm aid announcement.   Progress…

We expect the administration to release a proposed rule in December to repeal or amend the Biden-era EPA27 light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles standards, with a full repeal appearing more likely (65%) at this point. …

Today we examine five market-relevant issues, including: Prospects for a highway bill next year [VMC, MLM, NUE, CX, CAT, DE, PSN, URI] Likelihood of permitting reform, which could accelerate infrastructure development, including utilities and energy…

We want to highlight three developments relevant to the defense sector:   Potential positive news for the sector this week, as the Senate could vote as early as today to begin consideration of the Defense Appropriations…

Congress is in session this week before adjourning for the Thanksgiving holiday. Although lawmakers just passed legislation to keep the government open, there is already renewed concern about another potential shutdown on January 31, when…

We continue to believe that efforts to prevent states and localities from enforcing AI-specific laws or regulations for up to 10 years is unlikely to become federal law for at least the duration of President…