Macro / Misc.

With the Congress back in Washington this week, Iran will dominate the agenda, but it won’t completely crowd out housing policy, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, and Farm Bill politics.  The House and Senate are both expected to move an Iran-related war powers resolution this week; however, it is unlikely to constrain the…

Trade policy is likely to remain fluid in the months ahead as the Trump administration invokes Sections 122, 232, 301, and potentially 338 authorities. While the threat of Section 122-based tariffs provides near-term leverage to push for bilateral trade agreements, the statutory 150-day limit of…

President Trump’s State of the Union address surprised us in how much time he devoted to recognizing guests and heroes in the visitors’ gallery — likely a record for such acknowledgments. The speech was structured…

Tariffs and the State of the Union (SOTU) will likely set the tone in Washington this week, even as a partial shutdown continues, and housing legislation inches forward in the Senate. Our focus is on where trade policy goes from here,…

Below, we outline four developments that are shaping the agriculture complex in 2026 across equipment manufacturers, grain trading/processing firms, and biofuels-linked companies. Two items look incrementally positive (farm aid and U.S.–China ag purchases) for the farm complex while the other two seem neutral (a farm bill extension and…

Below, we outline how state-level SNAP food-restriction waivers—which are likely negative for KO, PEP, KDP, MDLX, HSY—are expanding and evolving, and we highlight three areas where investors should focus: The 13 states with approved SNAP…

With both the House and Senate are in session this week, we focus on a few developments we believe will be in focus in Washington this week:  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding expiration and why we view the risk of a prolonged shutdown as low,…

Despite renewed congressional discussions around reconciliation, we continue to believe the most likely outcome for defense spending is a modest increase through the regular appropriations process, not a large, one-time infusion tied to the budget…

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with congressional leaders especially under pressure to resolve the ongoing funding lapse. We focus on five key developments we believe matter most for the markets and Washington this week:  The partial government shutdown…

There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…