Macro / Misc.

One issue that has flown under the radar screen but that we expect congressional Democrats to further scrutinize next year is surveillance pricing, also known as personalized pricing. We expect legislation such as Sen. Ruben…

As we go to press, Democrats appear on track to gain at least 35 House seats, giving likely incoming Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) considerable room to maneuver and limiting the leverage of the roughly seven…

In our final note ahead of tomorrow’s midterm elections, we believe it is essentially a fait accompli that Democrats will retake the House. We expect Democrats to pick up 15 to 20 seats, giving them…

Utah’s decision yesterday to file criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders marks the latest escalation in the battle over prediction markets and could help accelerate a likely U.S. Supreme Court review of the dispute….

With one week until the midterm elections, we continue to put the odds of Democrats retaking the House at more than 85%, and we expect them to emerge with a 12–17-seat majority when all is…

There are some reasons to believe the Republicans could perform better than current polling suggests, despite the fact that the political environment remains difficult for the GOP, with President Trump’s overall approval rating at just…

We continue to believe there is an 85% chance Democrats win control of the House and a 60% chance they also take the Senate in November. Given Democratic control of the House is very likely…

It is no surprise that a Democratic takeover of even one House of Congress will lead to ambitious, aggressive and continuous investigations into the Trump administration, President Trump’s family and associates, and companies that have…

This week is the Senate’s last scheduled week before the elections. Senators plan to pass the Protect College Sports Act on Monday, an odd legislative choice, in our view, when voters are focused on inflation…

We have moved our odds to a 60% chance of Democrats retaking the Senate from our previous assessment of 50/50. We continue to believe there is an 85% chance the House flips control to the…