Macro / Misc.

Below, we outline how state-level SNAP food-restriction waivers—which are likely negative for KO, PEP, KDP, MDLX, HSY—are expanding and evolving, and we highlight three areas where investors should focus: The 13 states with approved SNAP…

With both the House and Senate are in session this week, we focus on a few developments we believe will be in focus in Washington this week:  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding expiration and why we view the risk of a prolonged shutdown as low,…

Despite renewed congressional discussions around reconciliation, we continue to believe the most likely outcome for defense spending is a modest increase through the regular appropriations process, not a large, one-time infusion tied to the budget…

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with congressional leaders especially under pressure to resolve the ongoing funding lapse. We focus on five key developments we believe matter most for the markets and Washington this week:  The partial government shutdown…

There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…

With the House in session this week, but the Senate out, House leaders are expected to continue work on FY2026 appropriations before the Jan. 31 deadline, and a short-term continuing resolution (CR) likely being needed…

This is a busy week in Washington as Congress works through FY2026 appropriations while also advancing several policy items with market relevance. In addition, developments on crypto regulation, Russia sanctions, trade programs, tariffs, and foreign policy are…

Defense is likely to continue benefiting from positive headlines—particularly as President Trump is expected to reiterate his ~$1.5 trillion defense framing in the State of the Union (tentatively scheduled for Feb. 24) and again in his proposed budget (February / early March). However, the most probable outcome remains a materially smaller increase in defense spending constrained by process, timing, and…

Consistent with our prior note, we continue to assign 60%-65% odds that the Trump administration suffers at least a partial loss in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) case currently pending before the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). Importantly, the Court…