Macro / Misc.

We think it is very unlikely that Disney (DIS) will lose any of its eight FCC broadcast licenses because of the FCC’s investigation into whether Disney/ABC’s DEI programs crossed into unlawful employment discrimination. Even if…

We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…

With both the House and Senate in session this week, there is a great deal happening in DC that will distract members from issues important to investors. For example, lawmakers will focus on reauthorizing the…

With the House and Senate both in session this week, Washington’s focus will remain concentrated on the Iran-U.S. conflict, which heated up yesterday after the U.S. seized an Iranian ship. We have though an escalation…

We assign roughly 65% probability that California’s pending legislation, AB 1709, which is a bipartisan ban on kids under 16 years old from creating accounts on social media platforms (META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) that have…

With the House and Senate back in session this week after a two-week spring break, Washington’s focus will remain concentrated on the following issues:  The U.S.-Iran conflict and likely War Powers Resolution votes in both chambers.   The path for ~$200 billion in additional defense funding, $15-$25 billion in aid for farmers,…

In the past week, the House and Senate have introduced bipartisan legislation known as the MATCH Act, or the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, which poses headline risk for ASML (ASML) and Tokyo Electron (TOELY). The legislative measure is designed to tighten U.S. export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment…

The recent social media verdicts in New Mexico and California raise the valuation question for investors about how far P/Es might fall for META (META) and (Alphabet) GOOGL assuming litigation risks continue and potentially intensifies. History’s answer is that the path isn’t linear. In different cases, it took the market time…

We had the following takeaways from last week’s conference call we hosted on the recent verdicts in the META and GOOGL trials in New Mexico and California with two lawyers who are very familiar with similar Internet cases. A transcript or audio recording of the call is available…

Recent developments on the AI front – including the Trump administration’s recently released AI policy blueprint and a letter made public today from Sens. Jim Banks (R-IN) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), urging an immediate pause in Nvidia (NVDA) AI chip exports to China, highlighting that while there will continue to be a great deal of sound coming out of DC, we’re…