Macro / Misc.

We assign roughly 65% probability that California’s pending legislation, AB 1709, which is a bipartisan ban on kids under 16 years old from creating accounts on social media platforms (META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) that have…

With the House and Senate back in session this week after a two-week spring break, Washington’s focus will remain concentrated on the following issues:  The U.S.-Iran conflict and likely War Powers Resolution votes in both chambers.   The path for ~$200 billion in additional defense funding, $15-$25 billion in aid for farmers,…

In the past week, the House and Senate have introduced bipartisan legislation known as the MATCH Act, or the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, which poses headline risk for ASML (ASML) and Tokyo Electron (TOELY). The legislative measure is designed to tighten U.S. export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment…

The recent social media verdicts in New Mexico and California raise the valuation question for investors about how far P/Es might fall for META (META) and (Alphabet) GOOGL assuming litigation risks continue and potentially intensifies. History’s answer is that the path isn’t linear. In different cases, it took the market time…

We had the following takeaways from last week’s conference call we hosted on the recent verdicts in the META and GOOGL trials in New Mexico and California with two lawyers who are very familiar with similar Internet cases. A transcript or audio recording of the call is available…

Recent developments on the AI front – including the Trump administration’s recently released AI policy blueprint and a letter made public today from Sens. Jim Banks (R-IN) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), urging an immediate pause in Nvidia (NVDA) AI chip exports to China, highlighting that while there will continue to be a great deal of sound coming out of DC, we’re…

With both chambers in session this week ahead of a scheduled two-week recess, Washington’s focus remains concentrated on a narrow set of issues, including:  The evolving U.S.-Iran conflict, which is expected to include another War Powers resolution in the Senate….

While this morning’s Senate Commerce Committee hearing, entitled “Liability or Deniability? Platform Power as Section 230 Turns 30,” was lively and somewhat surprisingly well attended, we seriously doubt any material erosion of Section 230 protections for social media companies such as Meta (META), Alphabet’s YouTube (GOOGL), and Reddit (RDDT) will pass…

We estimate roughly a 35% probability that Congress will enact a youth online safety legislative package, including the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), COPPA 2.0, and the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) or similar legislation. The combo of these measures would be negative for Snap (SNAP), Roblox (RBLX), Meta (META), and Alphabet’s…

With both the House and Senate back in Washington, the focused will be on a number of issues, including:   The evolving Iran conflict.   The standoff surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.  Senate debate over the SAVE America Act.   Also, the Federal…