December 9, 2025
NVDA: Blackwell’s to China?
Yesterday’s announcement by the White House to allow Nvidia (NVDA to sell the H200 chip to China reinforces our view that there’s an out of consensus 40-50% probability that NVDA could sell the more advanced…
December 8, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: ACA Subsidies, Farm Aid, the NDAA, Permitting Reform, Sports Betting, U.S.-India Trade Talks and Ukraine
The House and Senate are in session for the next two weeks before taking off for the rest of the year. As for this week, we see the following items that could be important to…
December 4, 2025
ACA Situation Stuck in Place but We Remain Optimistic of Eventual HIX Deal with a Slipping Timeline
The recent fits-and-starts for around a compromise to avert expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) at year-end unsurprisingly remains stalled, with no meaningful concessions from either side’s leaders. As we head into…
December 3, 2025
(NVDA, AMD, V, MA, WMT, TGT, HD) NDAA Update: Tech and Credit Card Amendments Unlikely to Survive
We continue to expect that three of the most material non-defense-related items that some members of Congress hoped to include in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will not make the final cut. Those amendments are: GAIN…
December 1, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: Farm Aid, the GAIN AI Act, U.S.-Canada Trade, Russia-Ukraine and a Tennessee Special Election
Congress returns to Washington this week, with little on the formal legislative agenda likely to move markets. Still, investors should keep an eye on the following developments: A potential Trump administration farm aid announcement. Progress…
November 30, 2025
Home Health: CY26 Medicare Cuts Softened; CY27+ Still Points to Small YoY Declines [PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH]
Home health (HH) agencies [PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH] received meaningful relief in Friday’s final CY26 Medicare HH reimbursement rule, which pares back the proposed aggregate spending cut and rate discounts. However, CMS signals…
November 29, 2025
DXCM, TNDM, BBNX, RMD, COLOB.DC, CTEC.LN: Competitive Bidding Comes for CGM, Pumps, & More
With CMS finalizing [Fact Sheet, Final Rule] its intention to include continuous glucose monitors (CGM) [DXCM, ABT], insulin pumps [TNDM, BBNX], and urological / ostomy supplies [COLOB.DC, CTEC.LN] in the next round of the Competitive…
November 26, 2025
Medicare Advantage Tech Changes Proposal: RFI Eases Risk Adjustment Concerns, Star Rating Changes Afoot [HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, PRVA, ASTH]
Our read of the proposed Contract Year 2027 Policy and Technical Changes regulation for Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D (fact sheet here), confirms our expectations for a positive regulatory backdrop for 2027 for MA [HUM, ALHC,…
November 25, 2025
[DXCM, ABT] CGM Report Suggest Competitive Bidding Coming
Publication of the HHS Office of Inspector General’s (OIG) long-awaited report today on Medicare payments for continuous glucose monitors (CGM): (A) bolsters our long-held view that the agency intends to finalize its intention to include…
November 24, 2025
ACA HIX Fix: Enactment Odds Improve But Details TBD [OSCR, CNC, ACHC, THC, CYH, UHS, DVA, HQY]
Media reports (here, here, here) indicate that an ACA compromise may be imminent, with President Trump reportedly offering to support extension of the enhanced premium tax subsidies (with limitations) while channeling a portion into health…