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December 5, 2024

DC Quick Takes: Slater at DOJ Antitrust, Reconciliation Two-Step, Defense Spending Headline Risk and the GOP House

By Joe Lieber

We give our quick takes below to: 1) Trump’s nomination of Gail Slater to head the Department of Justice (DOJ) antitrust division; 2) the prospects of passing two reconciliation bills and what that might mean…

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December 4, 2024

(FDX, UPS, AMZN, PDD) De Minimis Bill Likely to Pass Next Congress

By Joe Lieber

We believe there’s a 2-in-3 chance that de minimis legislation, which would limit China and other non-market economies from taking advantage of the $800 threshold for which goods come into the U.S. without paying duties,…

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December 3, 2024

[WBA, CVS, WMT] 340B Case on Deck at SCOTUS Conference; Regardless of Resolution, Target Remains on 340B

By Beth Steindecker

We could see some short-term positive news for retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI) if the Supreme Court decides not to hear the appeal of PhRMA v. McClain, a development that…

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December 3, 2024

Life Science Tools: NIH Cuts in Context

By John Leppard

With the life science tools (LST) space still trailing broader market moves following the Nov. 5 election, in part due to investor concerns over NIH funding, we continue to believe that significant budget cuts are…

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December 2, 2024

Lame Duck Session Update

By Joe Lieber

Roughly a month ago, we published our outlook for the lame duck session, which included a laundry list of issues ranging from healthcare, business tax provisions, tech items, trade issues (de minimis rule),  and cannabis. …

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November 27, 2024

LLY, NVO, HIMS: GLP-1 Coverage Questions & Implied Sales

By John Leppard

Following our pre-rule report yesterday on CMS’s proposal to extend Medicare / Medicaid coverage to anti-obesity medications (AOMs), we update our assumptions below based on the details included in the release itself. More specifically: We…

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November 26, 2024

Trade Update: Expect the Unexpected

By Joe Lieber

We have the following comments about President-elect Trump’s posts last night on Truth Social regarding tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada:   We doubt that Trump’s call for an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products due…

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November 26, 2024

[LLY, NVO] Quick Takes on Obesity Coverage Surprise

By John Leppard

While likely implying a ~2% revenue tailwind for LLY and NVO, if implemented, we take a cautious view of this morning’s surprise White House announcement that it intends to facilitate broader Medicare / Medicaid coverage…

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November 26, 2024

Exact Sciences: Cologuard Plus Gets 16% Bump, Coverage Questions Remain

By John Leppard

In a positive surprise relative to our initial expectations, CMS’s CY25 payment rate of $592 for EXAS’s Cologuard Plus represents a 16% premium to the legacy test’s $509. While this falls slightly shy of the…

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November 25, 2024

[CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, HCA, CYH, UHS]: Growing Overhang from Medicaid Legislative Reforms, But Watch for Vulnerable GOP Pushback

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways: The risk overhang from potential Medicaid reforms to managed care organizations, hospitals, behavioral facilities, and other providers focused on these low-income enrollees will likely grow as the Trump administration staffs up and Congress…

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