April 3, 2025
Senate Budget Resolution & Healthcare Offsets
In response to yesterday’s Senate budget resolution proposal and the GOP’s assumption of the current policy baseline for scoring purposes, we think Congress continues to target Medicaid, Medicare hospital site neutrality, and PBM reforms as…
March 25, 2025
HUM, ALHC, UNH: Optimistic for Mid-Single Digit MA Rate Increase for CY26, Upcoding Remains a Longer-Term Issue
Anticipating CMS’s issuance of its final CY26 Medicare Advantage (MA) rate notice within the next two weeks (on or before Monday, April 7), we remain optimistic about near-term regulatory changes for MA insurers [HUM, ALHC,…
March 10, 2025
[OSCR, ELV, CNC, HCA, THC]: Targeting Obamacare Program Integrity in Rulemaking and Legislation
With all eyes focused on whether Congress will extend the enhanced ACA subsidies or let them lapse – we remain optimistic of a middle ground (revision and extension) – we caution investors about the headline…
February 23, 2025
Medicaid Reform Watch: Still Early On – What to Watch for [CNC, MOH, ARDT, CYH, ENSG, ADUS]
As the budget resolution process and subsequent reconciliation strategy unfolds, Medicaid reforms that have posed headline enrollment and payment risk to Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH, ELV], dual eligible insurers [UNH, HUM, ELV, CVS],hospitals [ARDT, CYH,…
February 10, 2025
Sizing Medicaid Work Requirement Risks [CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, ARDT, ENS, ADUS]
As we await the House’s budget reconciliation strategy this week, the Senate FY25 budget resolution proposal released late Friday bolsters our expectations for Medicaid work requirements, which we see as one the most likely Medicaid-related…
January 29, 2025
RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing
The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…
January 28, 2025
[CNC, MOH, ARDT, UHS, ENSG, ADUS]: Medicaid Funding & Best Bet on OMB Funding Memo
We lean against yesterday’s OMB directive for temporarily pausing federal funding for grants, loans and programs applying largely to Medicaid’s payments to the states for Medicaid insurers (CNC, MOH, ELV, UNH, CVS) or for reimbursements…
January 22, 2025
[OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, WELL] Optimistic on ACA Subsidies, But Watching Other Risks
While investors in insurers and providers seem most concerned about the fate of the expiring enhanced ACA subsidies, which we still expect to be revised but ultimately extended later this year, other – albeit smaller…
January 16, 2025
UNH: Though Confident, Public Policy Questions Remain
UnitedHealth’s (UNH) comments during its 4Q and full year 2024 earnings call about changes its it taking to head off certain public policy concerns (PBMs, prior authorization/claim denials) seem like the company is in catch-up…
January 14, 2025
[CVS, CI, UNH]: FTC 2nd (Negative) Report on PBMs Doesn’t Change Overhang Trajectory
The FTC’s unanimously-supported release of its second interim report on pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), focused on specialty drug dispensing at affiliated pharmacies [CVS, CI, UNH] that generated an extra $7.3B in revenue over six years,…