November 5, 2025
Medicare Advantage: Still Expecting Light Regulatory Touch for CY27 [HUM, ALHC, AGL, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, PRVA]
Listening to recent earnings calls held by various Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers and value-based care providers [HUM, ALHC, AGL, UNH, CVS, ELV] leaves us with the following thoughts on the MA regulatory policy environment for…
October 14, 2025
[HUM] Stars Rating Litigation Likely Brings Chapter to Close
We think this morning’s court ruling against Humana (HUM) in its Medicare Advantage (MA) Stars litigation is likely the end of the road in its efforts to secure a higher score for its 2026 payment…
October 6, 2025
Still Optimistic on Obamacare Subsidy Fix with Reforms, But Less So on Age Rating and Reinsurance [OSCR, CNC, ELV, CYH, THC, HCA, UHS, ACHC]
Nearly a week into the government shutdown, with the parties dug in, we continue to expect Congress to “fix” the enhanced Obamacare subsidy cliff, benefiting exchange insurers, hospitals, and behavioral health providers. The questions remain…
September 29, 2025
Medicare Advantage: CMS’ Stable Message Eclipsed by Falling Enrollment Forecast, But A Wait and See Attitude Is Appropriate
While reports over the weekend about CMS’s Friday release of the Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Plan (PDP) premium, deductible and other information for the 2026 plan year focused on the 2.6% projected cut…
September 25, 2025
Obamacare Fix: Still Optimistic, But Not Clean or Near Term [OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, UHS, ACHC]
We continue to be optimistic and think the odds have risen above 50% that Congress later this year reaches a compromise to “fix” the expiring enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which would further remove some of the…
September 10, 2025
Status of Medicaid Work Requirements Among States [CNC, MOH, CYH, HCA, THC, UHS, ACHC, MMS]
Headline risk to Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH], hospitals [CYH, HCA, THC], behavioral providers [UHS, ACHC], and Medicaid contractors [MMS] is likely to ramp up in the coming months as 15 states take affirmative steps toward…
August 25, 2025
Court’s Stay of CMS’s Obamacare Rule Provisions Is Clear Positive Sign But Uncertain Policy Outlook Still Suggests Messy Sign-Up [OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, UHS, HQY]
A federal district court’s ruling Friday to stay part of CMS’s Obamacare program integrity regulation is a positive development for exchange insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH], hospitals [HCA, THC, CYH, ARDT, MPW, municipal-backed facilities] and…
July 28, 2025
CY26 Medicare Part D: Additional Spending but CMS Starting to Put on the Brakes
Today’s CMS release regarding its CY26 Medicare Part D program gives the impression the agency is focusing on stability in its drug benefit program with the goal to ensure 1) enrollees – especially those in…
July 22, 2025
Obamacare Enhanced Subsidy Debate – Where We Stand [OSCR, CNC, ELV, THC, CYH, UHS]
While exchange insurers (OSCR, CNC, ELV) and hospitals (THC, CYH, ARDT, UHS, HCA) try to figure out their Obamacare businesses for next year with the various regulatory and reconciliation-related changes leading to anticipated enrollment declines…
July 9, 2025
Reconciliation: Final Healthcare Provisions; Clarifying Tweaks to DPP Language and Overlooked Parts of Work Requirements
While we still agree with consensus about the negative bias towards hospitals and Medicaid insurers from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) signed into law last Friday, we note a few tweaks in the…