Trump Appointees: Our Take

By Joe Lieber Published on November 15, 2024 PDF

If taken individually, we would expect Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. all to lose their confirmation battles and either have their names withdrawn for consideration or lose a Senate floor vote. But looking more holistically, presidents rarely lose confirmation votes, especially for Cabinet level positions and especially when their party controls the Senate. Maybe two of the three aren’t confirmed, with Gaetz leading our list but we don’t see all three being denied their position.

In our healthcare team’s opinion, RFK Jr. has the highest chances of being confirmed of the three, but even then, they are skeptical he survives the Senate process due to opposition from the healthcare industry and the pro-life movement.

Having said that, we do not believe any of these three will be cleared through a recess appointment, despite incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) putting that option on the table. We doubt the Senate will simply give up their Constitutional responsibilities for the most controversial of Trump’s nominees. Even if Thune tried to take the recess appointment route, some moderate Republicans might join Democrats in opposing motions to adjourn to prohibit the most controversial recess appointments.

A quick look at history shows how few candidates are denied confirmation. The last Cabinet nominee to lose on the Senate floor was on Senator John Tower (R-TX) on March 9, 1989, during the President George H.W. Bush’s (R) administration. He was nominated to be Secretary of Defense and later found work at the White House in a position tha didn’t require confirmation.

Since President Bill Clinton’s (D) term, which started on January 20, 1993, only 11 Cabinet candidates have been nominated and then had their name withdrawn. No other Cabinet candidates since Tower have been rejected by a Senate vote. Since the filibuster was eliminated in 2017 with regard to presidential nominees, only two Cabinet officials who were nominated were not confirmed.

Could 2025 be different? Sure, but we doubt it. Most of Trump’s nominees are likely to be confirmed.

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst, Capitol Policy Partners, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Analyst Certifications and Independence of Research.

Each of the Capitol Policy Partners analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report. Capitol Policy Partners (the “Company”) is an independent equity research provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. Capitol Policy Partners has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent research.

Limitation Of Research And Information.

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of Capitol Policy Partners. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data. Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. Capitol Policy Partners shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from Capitol Policy Partners.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited.

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property.

Capitol Policy Partners, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of Capitol Policy Partners is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by Capitol Policy Partners unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.