Slight Advantage for Harris

By Joe Lieber Published on October 8, 2024 PDF

With less than a month until Election Day, we view Vice President Kamala Harris as having a slight edge over Donald Trump. The House is likely to be controlled by whichever party wins the presidency, but we give Republicans ~70% odds of winning the Senate, though we have seen some erosion in the GOP odds. While the polls continue to show a close race at the top of the ticket, we highlight two dynamics that will likely inform the outcome: 1) polling error; and 2) abortion.

Continued Polling Error Could Benefit Trump

Despite widespread complaints about the polls in 2016, they were in fact pretty accurate, despite showing a slightly bigger advantage for Hillary Clinton relative to her final numbers.

The final pre-election RealClearPolitics (RPC) average had her up by 3.2%, and she won the popular vote by 2.1%. So, the polls were off by a modest 1.1 percentage points.

However, 2020 was off by even more. The final RPC average going into Election Day had President Joe Biden up by 7.2%, while his margin of victory was only 4.5%, meaning the aggregate polls were off by 2.7 percentage points

Looking at today’s polls, the RPC average has Harris up by 2.1% nationally, meaning that if the sampling error is again biased towards the Democrat her margin would be far slimmer, if non-existent. If the polls are off by the relatively small amount we saw in 2016, her lead would be 0.9%, whereas a 2020 error rate would see her trailing Trump by 0.7%.

Of course, the election isn’t decided by the national popular vote but will be determined by the Electoral College (EC) and the so-called battleground states. In the table below, you can also see how polling in the crucial battleground states differed from the results in the last two general elections. In 2016, Trump outperformed his final polling in six of the eight states, with that number shrinking to five in 2020. Keep in mind that doesn’t mean that Trump won all of the states where he outperformed, just that his final results were better than polling would have suggested.

For the 2024 election, Harris should easily secure 226 EC votes while Trump should secure 219. The remaining 93 EC votes are up for grabs in the battleground states. Recall a candidate needs 270 EC votes to win the White House.

*Over Performance is the difference between the final poll and actual results. All data from RPC.

Obviously, Trump did not win the popular vote in either his victory in 2016 or his loss in 2020, but given a built-in EC advantage for Republicans, a small popular vote loss could once again lead to an EC victory.

Of course, the polls may not actually favor Harris. Every cycle, pollsters recalibrate their methodologies to correct for any biases that may occur, but as outlined above, the delta between predicted and actual results widened in 2020 relative to 2016.

Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections Since Dobbs

While the polls have overestimated Democratic presidential candidates’ support levels over the prior two cycles, these elections occurred before the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.

Since then, we have seen Democrats outperform pre-election polling in ~70% of special elections at the federal, state and local level. While this doesn’t mean that the Democrat actually won in those races, it does suggest that the pro-Democrat sampling errors of the past might have been addressed, or at least mitigated by abortion-related turnout.

In fact, recall that in the 2022 mid-term elections it was the Republicans that significantly underperformed poll-based expectations. Despite predictions that the GOP would pick up anywhere from 12 to 25 House seats, they ultimately gained just nine, with the Democrats gaining a seat in the Senate, and the predicted “Red Wave” never materializing.

With Republicans still struggling to find a consistent message on abortion, it is at this point unclear if the issue will have the same impact as in 2022, but it is also noteworthy that abortion-related measures will be on the ballot in 10 states this year, with two being in key battlegrounds (Arizona & Nevada). We should also note that Trump had won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016 on his path to victory but lost the state’s 11 Electoral College votes to Joe Biden by just 0.4% in 2020.

Of course, each election is different, and there are myriad ancillary considerations that will inform the 2024 outcome. For instance, voter concerns over the economy / inflation, as well as the Israel/Gaza/Hezbollah conflict, could have negative implications for Harris in Michigan, whereas Trump is the first major party candidate to run after being convicted of multiple felonies. In addition, enthusiasm seems to benefit Harris in this cycle.

That being said, we tend to believe that the abortion issue retains much of its resonance with battleground state voters and could very well be a key factor leading Harris to victory in November.

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst, Capitol Policy Partners, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Analyst Certifications and Independence of Research.

Each of the Capitol Policy Partners analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report. Capitol Policy Partners (the “Company”) is an independent equity research provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. Capitol Policy Partners has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent research.

Limitation Of Research And Information.

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of Capitol Policy Partners. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data. Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. Capitol Policy Partners shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from Capitol Policy Partners.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited.

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property.

Capitol Policy Partners, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of Capitol Policy Partners is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by Capitol Policy Partners unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.