Macro / Misc.

At this early stage, we give tossup odds to Governor Mike DeWine’s (R-OH) budget proposal released yesterday, raising the state’s tax rate on sports betting from 20% to 40%, becoming law.  The budget now goes…

Both chambers of Congress are in session this week, but tariffs are likely to dominate the news flow. Meanwhile: Congressional leaders are trying to reach an agreement on FY25 spending levels. The House Budget Committees…

We continue to believe that President Trump will likely stick by his February 1 deadline for announcing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for problems he sees at the border and fentanyl coming into the…

We do not believe that the Trump administration will be successful in their attempts to freeze / cut federal funding that Congress authorized. However, we do see this attempt by the Trump administration as increasing…

We could see progress on a few fronts this week as Congress works on:   The massive reconciliation / tax bill legislation at a retreat starting today in Florida.  Top- line spending levels for defense and…

We have the following comments about President Trump’s recent trade pronouncements, which are generally consistent with our views before he became president. We are skeptical that the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in response…

We expect some potential market moving action this week in relation to:  1) President-elect Trump’s inauguration, 2) his potential executive orders (EOs) and 3) his public comments. Trump has promised 100 EOs in the first…

Our long-held belief has been that defense spending for FY25 would clock in at ~$920 billion; however, that figure seems too low in our view, given the recent news flow.  We now believe defense spending…

We see little positive legislative movement for the sports gambling sector [DKNG, FLUT, CZR, MGM], since we do not expect any of the 11 states that have yet to legalize the practice to make further…

This week starts a host of hearings on President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees (see below). The Senate is also expected to pass an immigration bill, the Laken Riley Act (S. 5), which would require the Dept….