Macro / Misc.

On the heels of the UK trade deal announced this morning, we have the following updates on: China trade talks; The U.S. Court of International Trade reciprocal trade case; and Potential semiconductor tariffs. On trade…

We continue to give ~75% odds that the reconciliation/ tax bill is likely to pass Congress this summer and to include many other tax provisions than just those from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs…

This week, with the not-so-surprising postponements of key House committee reconciliation markups, the focus will be on cobbling together a reconciliation bill. We could see a major trade deal announced this week. There is some…

We believe President Trump’s “skinny budget” proposal, released today, is mostly dead on arrival and could easily lead to a government shutdown at year’s end or early next year. We expect a more detailed version…

Congressional Republicans have begun marking up the reconciliation bill this week passing out of committee $150 billion in increased defense spending. The House Judiciary Committee is expected to approve legislation providing $45 billion in funding…

The House is expected to begin marking up the reconciliation / tax bill this week, as Congress returns from a two-week recess. The lower chamber is also poised to consider legislation to repeal California’s electric…

We have long believed that the risks to the green energy tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were higher than the markets believed as Republicans look for offsets to pay for the reconciliation…

We continue to believe there is no better than a 1- in- 4 chance for Congress to enact a tax hike on Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings (NCLH) in…

Congress returns from recess next week where work is expected to pick up on the reconciliation/tax bill, with various committees beginning to mark up the legislation over the next two weeks. During the next month…

We hosted a conference call yesterday with a trade expert, who has advised various politicians in Washington, and give our takeaways and update views on trade. You can click here for a link to the…