Macro / Misc.

We have the following comments about President Trump’s recent trade pronouncements, which are generally consistent with our views before he became president. We are skeptical that the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in response…

We expect some potential market moving action this week in relation to:  1) President-elect Trump’s inauguration, 2) his potential executive orders (EOs) and 3) his public comments. Trump has promised 100 EOs in the first…

Our long-held belief has been that defense spending for FY25 would clock in at ~$920 billion; however, that figure seems too low in our view, given the recent news flow.  We now believe defense spending…

We see little positive legislative movement for the sports gambling sector [DKNG, FLUT, CZR, MGM], since we do not expect any of the 11 states that have yet to legalize the practice to make further…

This week starts a host of hearings on President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees (see below). The Senate is also expected to pass an immigration bill, the Laken Riley Act (S. 5), which would require the Dept….

We continue to believe that Congress is likely to pass a massive $5 trillion- plus tax bill that would extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA). We…

While most of the action in DC this week will be ceremonial with Congress certifying the election of President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, much of the talk in town will be on the…

When Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) initially pulled his negotiating continuing resolution (CR) with the Democrats, our view was that a government shutdown was unlikely.  Yes, we might have technically had one over the weekend, but…

Despite all the criticism, especially from President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance and Elon Musk, we do not believe there will be a government shutdown this week and expect Congress to pass a continuing resolution…

We don’t believe today’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing entitled “America’s High-Stakes Bet on Legalized Sports Gambling” does little to move the needle on federal legislation, despite most senators being critical of the industry. In fact,…