Macro / Misc.


April 28, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly—April 28 through May 2: Reconciliation, EVs, the Debt Limit and More

By Joe Lieber

The House is expected to begin marking up the reconciliation / tax bill this week, as Congress returns from a two-week recess. The lower chamber is also poised to consider legislation to repeal California’s electric…

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April 25, 2025

Risks to IRA Green Energy Tax Breaks

By Joe Lieber

We have long believed that the risks to the green energy tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were higher than the markets believed as Republicans look for offsets to pay for the reconciliation…

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April 23, 2025

(RCL, CCL, NCLH) Cruise Line Tax Update

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe there is no better than a 1- in- 4 chance for Congress to enact a tax hike on Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings (NCLH) in…

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April 21, 2025

DC Quick Takes: Reconciliation/Tax Cuts, Medicaid, Defense Spending, Immigration, SNAP Cuts, President’s Budget and Trade

By Joe Lieber

Congress returns from recess next week where work is expected to pick up on the reconciliation/tax bill, with various committees beginning to mark up the legislation over the next two weeks. During the next month…

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April 17, 2025

Trade and Tariff Conference Call Takeaways

By Joe Lieber

We hosted a conference call yesterday with a trade expert, who has advised various politicians in Washington, and give our takeaways and update views on trade. You can click here for a link to the…

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April 11, 2025

DC Quick Takes: Trade, Reconciliation/Taxes and Elections

By Joe Lieber

We want to let you know that we are working to set up a trade /tariff conference call for next Wednesday, so keep an eye on your inbox for details.   Below are some quick…

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April 9, 2025

Trade and Tariff Update and Conference Call Takeaways

By Joe Lieber

We had a conference call on Monday with a former Trump official and give our takeaways and out updated view on tariffs below. Click here for a link to the conference call transcript and audio…

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April 8, 2025

Defense Spending Update: Trump Call for ~$1 Trillion for FY26

By Joe Lieber

Recent developments buttress our expectation for an increase in defense spending. A few weeks ago, we told investors when the Trump administration seemingly called for an 8% cut in defense spending that we thought Congress…

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April 7, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly—April 7-11: Trade and Tax Cuts

By Joe Lieber

Trade will continue to dominate the news this week, while the House is scheduled to consider the budget resolution that the Senate passed early Saturday before both chambers go out on a two-week recess at…

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April 4, 2025

Trade and Tariff Update: Higher for Longer?

By Joe Lieber

Key Takeaways Even with the market turmoil due to the President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, we don’t see Trump reversing course in the very near term. In fact, we believe the rhetoric on trade could get…

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