Macro / Misc.

We continue to expect that three of the most material non-defense-related items that some members of Congress hoped to include in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will not make the final cut. Those amendments are:  GAIN…

Congress returns to Washington this week, with little on the formal legislative agenda likely to move markets. Still, investors should keep an eye on the following developments:   A potential Trump administration farm aid announcement.   Progress…

We expect the administration to release a proposed rule in December to repeal or amend the Biden-era EPA27 light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles standards, with a full repeal appearing more likely (65%) at this point. …

Today we examine five market-relevant issues, including: Prospects for a highway bill next year [VMC, MLM, NUE, CX, CAT, DE, PSN, URI] Likelihood of permitting reform, which could accelerate infrastructure development, including utilities and energy…

We want to highlight three developments relevant to the defense sector:   Potential positive news for the sector this week, as the Senate could vote as early as today to begin consideration of the Defense Appropriations…

Congress is in session this week before adjourning for the Thanksgiving holiday. Although lawmakers just passed legislation to keep the government open, there is already renewed concern about another potential shutdown on January 31, when…

We continue to believe that efforts to prevent states and localities from enforcing AI-specific laws or regulations for up to 10 years is unlikely to become federal law for at least the duration of President…

Both the House and Senate will very likely be in session this week, with the government shutdown seemingly on the verge of ending later this week. In addition, President Trump has reiterated his desire to…

With Nvidia (NVDA) exports to China once again making headlines, we see roughly a 40–50% probability that the company will be permitted to export China-specific versions of its Blackwell chips as early as next year. …

We continue to give ~60% odds that the Trump administration sees a partial loss in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) case, which will be argued before the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) tomorrow. However, as…