Joe/Beth

Congressional Republicans seem poised to move ahead with a “skinny” $65-$75 billion reconciliation bill that, importantly for investors, does not look like it will include: The ~$200 billion in additional defense funds, in part to…

While Trump said yesterday that he wants a reconciliation bill limited to funding for ICE and CBP, we think:  The odds slightly favor Republicans eventually including in the same package the administration’s ~$200 billion in defense funding to replenish stockpiles as a result of the Iran conflict.  We also think the…

We continue to expect only a very short government shutdown, as negotiations intensify ahead of the January 30 (tomorrow) funding deadline, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the White House reportedly in active discussions to resolve the impasse over the…

We are bumping our odds to ~75% (up from 65%) that a government shutdown occurs on Oct. 1. This is partially in light of the Democrats’ funding proposal, which includes:   A continuing resolution (CR) funding…

After House passage of a slightly revised reconciliation / tax bill early this morning, our 75% odds that this bill becomes law jumps to ~85%, and some might argue that’s too low.  Simply put, if…

Below we go over a host of issues that DC is grappling with from reconciliation / tax cut to defense spending, trade, Medicaid cuts, a potential government shutdown, the Fed’s independence and RFK’s nomination to…

We think House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces uphill odds on retaining his Speaker’s role. It’s close to a tossup but if Johnson is re-elected, it isn’t likely to be on the first ballot. Keep…

We give our quick takes below to: 1) Trump’s nomination of Gail Slater to head the Department of Justice (DOJ) antitrust division; 2) the prospects of passing two reconciliation bills and what that might mean…