Uncategorized


November 27, 2024

LLY, NVO, HIMS: GLP-1 Coverage Questions & Implied Sales

By John Leppard

Following our pre-rule report yesterday on CMS’s proposal to extend Medicare / Medicaid coverage to anti-obesity medications (AOMs), we update our assumptions below based on the details included in the release itself. More specifically: We…

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November 26, 2024

Trade Update: Expect the Unexpected

By Joe Lieber

We have the following comments about President-elect Trump’s posts last night on Truth Social regarding tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada:   We doubt that Trump’s call for an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products due…

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November 26, 2024

[LLY, NVO] Quick Takes on Obesity Coverage Surprise

By John Leppard

While likely implying a ~2% revenue tailwind for LLY and NVO, if implemented, we take a cautious view of this morning’s surprise White House announcement that it intends to facilitate broader Medicare / Medicaid coverage…

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November 26, 2024

Exact Sciences: Cologuard Plus Gets 16% Bump, Coverage Questions Remain

By John Leppard

In a positive surprise relative to our initial expectations, CMS’s CY25 payment rate of $592 for EXAS’s Cologuard Plus represents a 16% premium to the legacy test’s $509. While this falls slightly shy of the…

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November 25, 2024

[CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, HCA, CYH, UHS]: Growing Overhang from Medicaid Legislative Reforms, But Watch for Vulnerable GOP Pushback

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways: The risk overhang from potential Medicaid reforms to managed care organizations, hospitals, behavioral facilities, and other providers focused on these low-income enrollees will likely grow as the Trump administration staffs up and Congress…

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November 25, 2024

RFK’s Medical Coding Reforms: Don’t Hold Your Breath

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: With investors questioning RFK’s reported plans to restructure the medical coding system used by Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial health insurers , we remain highly skeptical of meaningful changes within the next 5-10 years,…

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November 22, 2024

Potential SNAP/Food Stamp Changes Under Trump

By Joe Lieber

We believe the concerns over cuts/changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)/food stamp program are overblown as a result of the Republican sweep, whether RFK Jr. is confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human…

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November 20, 2024

[UNH, HUM, ALHC, AGL, PRVA, MD]: Trump’s Unorthodox CMS Pick Reinforces Already Anticipated Support for Medicare Advantage and Physicians

By Beth Steindecker

President Trump’s surprise and unorthodox nomination of Dr. Mehmet Oz to be CMS administrator, whom we presume will likely be confirmed, affords somewhat of a blank slate for others in the administration to fill in…

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November 19, 2024

DC Quick Takes: Govt. Funding, Credit Card Swipe Fees, SNAP Program, DOGE and Crypto Legislation

By Joe Lieber

With Congress in the second week of the lame duck session and as President-elect Trump continues to make headlines, there are several issues important to investors that we want to touch base on, including:   How…

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November 19, 2024

Healthcare Extenders in FY25 Spending Bill: What Is Likely, Unlikely or Toss-Up?

By Beth Steindecker

With likelihood growing that Congress focuses on emergency spending and a short-term continuing resolution funding the government into Q1 next year during this lame duck period, we expect that translates to Congress punting on nearly-annual,…

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