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Given Trump’s trade pronouncement on the EU and Apple (AAPL) today, we want to provide an update on trade and tariffs. We see a real potential for EU tariffs to go into effect at least…

After House passage of a slightly revised reconciliation / tax bill early this morning, our 75% odds that this bill becomes law jumps to ~85%, and some might argue that’s too low.  Simply put, if…

CMS’s announcement late Wednesday to turn the dial up on its risk-adjustment data verification (RADV) audits of Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts with an eye toward the entire landscape raises legitimate fears of recouping sizable past…

Since we are at the 90-day mark after February 18 release of the White House’s Executive Order (EO) supportive of in-vitro fertilization (IVF), there is a hope that the Trump administration’s anticipated report of potential…

We think Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to pull off passing the reconciliation / tax bill this week before Congress goes out on its Memorial Day recess, though getting there is going to take…

As we head into this weekend, below are our latest thoughts on the healthcare components of the reconciliation bill and where things stand and what changes may be in store. This afternoon’s sidelining of the…

Nearly five hours of testimony from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. yesterday on the administration’s FY26 budget request leaves us with little additional confidence in the overall trajectory for NIH spending and – by extension –…

We view the IRA green energy tax credits in the House Ways and Means Committee as a worst-case scenario. We believe that, in aggregate, these tax breaks won’t get worse when the Senate cobbles together…

We continue to assign high odds that the reconciliation / tax bill will pass by late July / early August. The bill included many corporate and individual tax provisions. We focus on the corporate provisions…

Yesterday’s CMS proposal confirms our suspicion that the agency would seek to tighten state provider taxes – primarily those on managed care [ELV, UNH, CNC, MOH, CVS, CI, OSCR]– used to secure sizable federal Medicaid…