Uncategorized


February 18, 2026

(DE, AGCO, CNHI, CTVA, MOS, CF, ADM, BG) Ag Policy Tailwinds Grow, but Washington Gridlock Caps Upside

By Joe Lieber

Below, we outline four developments that are shaping the agriculture complex in 2026 across equipment manufacturers, grain trading/processing firms, and biofuels-linked companies. Two items look incrementally positive (farm aid and U.S.–China ag purchases) for the farm complex while the other two seem neutral (a farm bill extension and…

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February 12, 2026

Inspire Medical (INSP): Post-Call Questions Answered

By John Leppard

With INSP confirming our suspicion last night that MACs will ultimately require Inspire V procedures to be billed under CPT 64582 with a -52 (reduced work) modifier, we would expect this to translate into a…

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February 11, 2026

(KO, PEP, KDP, MDLZ, HSY) SNAP Food Restriction Waivers: 2026 Implementation Timeline and States to Watch

By Joe Lieber

Below, we outline how state-level SNAP food-restriction waivers—which are likely negative for KO, PEP, KDP, MDLX, HSY—are expanding and evolving, and we highlight three areas where investors should focus: The 13 states with approved SNAP…

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February 10, 2026

Ongoing Obamacare Market Evolution: Lower-Cost Plans Mix Shift Amidst Design Changes and Program Integrity Focus [OSCR, CNC, HQY, HCA, CYH]

By Beth Steindecker

Recent Obamacare developments (ACA proposal, House committee subpoenas, and OSCR’s earnings) reinforce this market’s durability and clear directional shift toward more-streamlined, lower-cost coverage and greater encouragement of enrollees to be more involved in their healthcare,…

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February 9, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Partial Gov. Shutdown, and the Farm Bill, the Highway Bill and Housing in the Spotlight

By Joe Lieber

With both the House and Senate are in session this week, we focus on a few developments we believe will be in focus in Washington this week:  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding expiration and why we view the risk of a prolonged shutdown as low,…

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February 5, 2026

Defense Spending and Reconciliation: Why a $450 Billion Increase Remains Unlikely

By Joe Lieber

Despite renewed congressional discussions around reconciliation, we continue to believe the most likely outcome for defense spending is a modest increase through the regular appropriations process, not a large, one-time infusion tied to the budget…

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February 4, 2026

CI Proposed FTC Settlement: What Might It Mean for PBMs? [CI, UNH, CVS, ELV, PGNY, CNC, HUM]

By Beth Steindecker

Cigna’s (CI) proposed settlement with the FTC over antitrust allegations regarding its PBM pricing, rebating and formulary practices around insulin likely establishes the basic framework that UNH and CVS will have to match to resolve…

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February 4, 2026

CareDx (CDNA): Coverage Risks Coming?

By John Leppard

We view CareDx (CDNA) as having potentially asymmetric downside risk going into the final MolDx local coverage determination (LCD) on organ transplant rejection, which we would expect to be released in the next 1-2 months…

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February 3, 2026

Hospices: Heightened CMS Scrutiny, Targeted CMS Enforcement, and Limited Sector-Wide Risk [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, Elara Caring, Compassus]

By Beth Steindecker

The recent public clash between CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) over Medicare fraud has renewed questions about whether the hospice industry [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH, private Elara Caring…

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February 2, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Govt Shutdown, the Warsh Confirmation Fight, USMCA, and Defense Sector

By Joe Lieber

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with congressional leaders especially under pressure to resolve the ongoing funding lapse. We focus on five key developments we believe matter most for the markets and Washington this week:  The partial government shutdown…

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