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June 5, 2025

(CRCL) Stablecoin Legislation Update

By Joe Lieber

In light of the successful—at least so far— Circle Internet Group (CRCL) IPO today, we wanted to offer an update on stablecoin legislation (S. 394, the GENIUS Act), which benefits CRCL and which we believe…

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June 3, 2025

Potential Targets for Change Among Healthcare Reconciliation Policies [THC, ARDT, CNC, MOH, ELV]

By Beth Steindecker

As we await the Senate’s likely release of its reconciliation measure over the next week or so, we continue to expect the upper chamber to smooth the edges around some of the House-passed reconciliation bill’s…

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June 2, 2025

Lab Tools: NIH’s Bleak Budget & Reason For Hope?

By John Leppard

We continue to expect FY26 NIH funding to remain largely flat YoY, despite White House calls for a -40% cut weighing on life science tools (LST) names, with the House likely to produce its own…

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June 2, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly-June 2-6: Reconciliation, Stablecoins, Trade, Russian Sanctions, FY26 Spending Kicks Off and Rescissions

By Joe Lieber

Congress returns this week after its weeklong Memorial Day recess, and the Senate will work on the House-passed reconciliation bill in earnest behind the scenes while the stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, will probably reach…

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May 29, 2025

Trade Update: What’s Next after Reciprocal Tariffs?

By Joe Lieber

We have the following thoughts about the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement the reciprocal tariffs and how it might…

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May 28, 2025

T-Bill Demand, Credit Card Regulation and Stablecoins

By Joe Lieber

 We continue to believe that stablecoin legislation, known as the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) in the Senate, is likely to pass in that chamber in the next couple of weeks, creating a regulatory framework for…

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May 27, 2025

(KO, PEP, MNST, CELH, HSY) SNAP/Food Stamp Update: Reconciliation Cut and Soft Drinks and Candy in the Crosshairs

By Joe Lieber

The SNAP/food stamp program has been of focus lately as various states have filed for SNAP benefit waivers, and one, Nebraska, was granted approval for one. In addition, Republicans are looking to cut SNAP as…

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May 23, 2025

Trade Update: EU, Apple, Japan and Sectoral Tariffs

By Joe Lieber

Given Trump’s trade pronouncement on the EU and Apple (AAPL) today, we want to provide an update on trade and tariffs. We see a real potential for EU tariffs to go into effect at least…

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May 22, 2025

Reconciliation Update: Where do We go from Here?

By Joe Lieber

After House passage of a slightly revised reconciliation / tax bill early this morning, our 75% odds that this bill becomes law jumps to ~85%, and some might argue that’s too low.  Simply put, if…

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May 21, 2025

Medicare Advantage: Ramping Up RADV Audits Clearly a Threat, But Does It Head Off Other Risks? [HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, ALHC]

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s announcement late Wednesday to turn the dial up on its risk-adjustment data verification (RADV) audits of Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts with an eye toward the entire landscape raises legitimate fears of recouping sizable past…

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