November 13, 2025
(NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) AI Sector: Federal Pre-emption of State Law Unlikely for Now
We continue to believe that efforts to prevent states and localities from enforcing AI-specific laws or regulations for up to 10 years is unlikely to become federal law for at least the duration of President…
November 10, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Shutdown, Stimulus, ACA Subsidies, Syria and Ukraine
Both the House and Senate will very likely be in session this week, with the government shutdown seemingly on the verge of ending later this week. In addition, President Trump has reiterated his desire to…
November 9, 2025
Obamacare HIX Fix: HSAs for All or Compromise on Subsidy Changes? We Still Think the Latter [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH, UNH, HQY, WBS, EHTH]
President Trump’s Truth Social posts over the weekend, along with that of other Republicans, suggest an existential threat for Obamacare insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH, UNH] and potentially other commercial health insurers [CI, CVS] while…
November 7, 2025
Obesity Drug Pricing Deal: Devil in the Details
As outlined by the Trump administration, we view yesterday’s obesity drug pricing deal with NVO and LLY as a modest near-term positive (potentially better for LLY), with the $245 / mo. price point for Medicare…
November 6, 2025
(NVDA) Nvidia’s Blackwell Chips and the China Trade Outlook
With Nvidia (NVDA) exports to China once again making headlines, we see roughly a 40–50% probability that the company will be permitted to export China-specific versions of its Blackwell chips as early as next year. …
November 5, 2025
Medicare Advantage: Still Expecting Light Regulatory Touch for CY27 [HUM, ALHC, AGL, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, PRVA]
Listening to recent earnings calls held by various Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers and value-based care providers [HUM, ALHC, AGL, UNH, CVS, ELV] leaves us with the following thoughts on the MA regulatory policy environment for…
November 5, 2025
[LLY, NVO] Obesity Rx Deal Expectations
Following reports yesterday [here, here] that the White House may announce an agreement with LLY and NVO as early as tomorrow to make obesity products available for $149 / month, “in return for coverage” under…
November 4, 2025
IEEPA at the Supreme Court: The Stakes for Trump’s Tariff Strategy
We continue to give ~60% odds that the Trump administration sees a partial loss in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) case, which will be argued before the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) tomorrow. However, as…
November 3, 2025
[MDXG, CTEC.LN, COLOB.C] Skin Substitute Rates & Additional Risks
Consistent with our expectations, we view MDXG and CTEC.LN as most exposed to CMS’s finalized Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) policy to reduce skin substitute payments from current Average Sales Price (ASP) / invoice levels to…
November 3, 2025
Physicians: Final Rule Favors Independent Doctors / Freestanding Centers but Cost Growth and Rate Pressures on Facility-Based Doctors Remain [RDNT, USPH, SEM, PRVA, ASTH, RadPar, Envision]
CMS’s final CY26 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), released late Friday, offered a split-screen picture for physicians, largely depending on whether they provide care in the office / freestanding center (positive) or in a facility…