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February 28, 2025

R&D Tax Credit: Companies Likely to Get a Boost

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that full expensing / deductibility of the R&D tax credit in the year expenses occur will be part of the massive reconciliation / tax bill we expect to see enacted in…

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February 26, 2025

(FDX, UPS, AMZN, PDD, Shein) De Minimis Rule Still in DC’s Crosshairs

By Joe Lieber

Comments by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) at a hearing yesterday reinforce our view that changes to the de minimis rule, which will likely be negative for FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS),…

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February 26, 2025

[CI, CVS, UNH, HUM, ELV, GDRX]: House Hearing Retreads Already Agreed-to PBM Reforms, Still Likely as Legislative Payfors

By Beth Steindecker

This morning’s House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee hearing on “needed” pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reforms attempted to reinvigorate the past bipartisan and bicameral consensus for legislative changes to rein in the PBMs, but until…

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February 26, 2025

House Passes Budget Resolution: Where Do We Go from Here?

By Joe Lieber

House passage of its FY25 budget resolution last night increases the odds that Congress will go forward with the one-bill reconciliation strategy, which is likely to delay additional funding ($100-$150 billion over four years) for…

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February 24, 2025

Trade Update: Trump’s CFIUS / America First Investment Policy Memorandum

By Joe Lieber

Much of President Trump’s “American First Investment Policy” memorandum released late Friday is in-line with expectations, though there are some notable provisions for certain sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum, biotechnology, hypersonics, aerospace, advanced…

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February 24, 2025

Capital Policy Weekly: Feb 24-28: Reconciliation, Government Shutdown and Health Care

By Joe Lieber

The action this week belongs to the House, which was out of session last week.  On Tuesday, the lower chamber is expected to vote on its FY25 budget resolution, which would ignite the one-bill reconciliation…

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February 23, 2025

Medicaid Reform Watch: Still Early On – What to Watch for [CNC, MOH, ARDT, CYH, ENSG, ADUS]

By Beth Steindecker

As the budget resolution process and subsequent reconciliation strategy unfolds, Medicaid reforms that have posed headline enrollment and payment risk to Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH, ELV], dual eligible insurers [UNH, HUM, ELV, CVS],hospitals [ARDT, CYH,…

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February 21, 2025

UNH: Thoughts on Reported DOJ Investigation

By Beth Steindecker

Today’s reaction to the WSJ report that UnitedHealth (UNH) is under civil investigation by the DOJ for Medicare False Claims Act violations strikes us as overwrought, with ultimate financial liabilities (still 1-2 years away) unlikely…

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February 21, 2025

(RCL, CCL, NCLH) Cruise Line Tax Unlikely to Become Law

By Joe Lieber

With Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) all down ~5% or more yesterday on fears that Congress will hike taxes on the industry as part of this year’s tax…

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February 20, 2025

(LMT, SAIC LDOS, BAH) Sec. Hegseth’s Memo and the State of Defense Spending

By Joe Lieber

We think Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal to cut 8% of the defense budget over the next five years will set up a clash with congressional Republicans, who have called for an increase in defense…

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