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October 18, 2024

Trump by a Nose: Market Impacts of a GOP Sweep

By Joe Lieber

While the outcome of the presidential election hovers around the 50/50 mark, we are moving our odds from a slight advantage for Vice President Kamala Harris to one for Donald Trump. Republicans are very likely…

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October 17, 2024

[AMED, EHAB, PNTG]: History Suggests Slight Home Health Medicare Rate Increase, But Risk of a Cut Remains Unappreciated

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways:  Medicare reimbursement history suggests home health agencies are in store for a very low single-digit increase YoY in overall Medicare payments and their 30-day base rate when CMS issues its final CY25 payment…

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October 16, 2024

Senate and House Election Update

By Joe Lieber

We continue to give the Republicans a ~70% chance of winning the Senate even as two Republican incumbents, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) have recently moved into our top 10 Senate races…

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October 15, 2024

[INSP, LIVN, NYXH] Sleep Apnea: Codes, Coverage, & Value Accretion

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: We suspect Inspire Medical’s (INSP) next-generation Inspire V implant procedure can secure Medicare coverage / reimbursement under the legacy product’s billing code [CPT 64582: $816], where the shorter procedure time should increase physicians’…

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October 14, 2024

Trump Tariff Scenarios

By Joe Lieber

We want to offer a competing view to some comments in a recent CNBC.com article highlighting that tariffs by President Trump may come sooner than expected if he wins in November. We, in fact, think…

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October 14, 2024

Nursing Home Minimum Staffing Rule – Full Reprieve Near Term Unlikely, Potential for Smaller Relief

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways: Nursing homes and their post-acute care REIT landlords have legal and legislative reasons to be hopeful about efforts to kill CMS’ minimum staffing rule, but we are skeptical they will secure a full…

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October 11, 2024

Cannabis Update: Take Tilray’s (TLRY) CEO’s Comment with a Grain of Salt

By Joe Lieber

Despite comments during an earnings call yesterday by Tilray’s (TLRY) CEO, who said with regard to the two presidential candidates and the elections that “something will happen in regards to Federal legalization, whether it’s medical…

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October 11, 2024

[LLY, NVO] GLP-1s & CBO Data Dive

By John Leppard

Key Takeaways: We continue to think legislation to allow Medicare Part D coverage of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) [Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO)] is unlikely to pass this year, despite the relatively modest budgetary estimates…

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October 11, 2024

Negative Tone Confirmed for CY25 Medicare Advantage Stars and Beyond as Goalposts Continue to Move

By Beth Steindecker

Key Takeaways: As we expected, CMS’s release of the CY25 Medicare Advantage (MA)/Part D star ratings continues to limit program “largesse,” making bonus awards more selective and ratings harder to maintain YoY. For CY25, fewer…

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October 10, 2024

Potential Top Officials in a Harris Administration

By Joe Lieber

With our view that the odds slightly favor Vice President Kamala Harris winning the presidency in November (see here), we offer a comprehensive list of potential candidates for key Cabinet and other important positions below. …

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