August 29, 2025
Tools: NIH Markup & Improving Award Outlays
With the House Appropriations health subcommittee announcing a markup of its FY26 HHS funding bill on Tues., Sept. 2 [available here], we maintain our view that topline funding numbers for NIH will likely remain flat…
August 27, 2025
Tariff Update: A Focus on Section 232 Tariffs
There are currently 9 official Section 232 investigations pending at the Department of Commerce with the furniture tariff investigation likely to become official within days, and we think more are forthcoming. If the Trump administration…
August 25, 2025
Court’s Stay of CMS’s Obamacare Rule Provisions Is Clear Positive Sign But Uncertain Policy Outlook Still Suggests Messy Sign-Up [OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, UHS, HQY]
A federal district court’s ruling Friday to stay part of CMS’s Obamacare program integrity regulation is a positive development for exchange insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH], hospitals [HCA, THC, CYH, ARDT, MPW, municipal-backed facilities] and…
August 23, 2025
Trade and Tariff Update with Aug. 1 Nearing
Before we get to our analysis below, we are hosting a trade conference call tentatively set for 11:00 am ET next Wednesday, July 30 with a leading trade specialist, Derek Scissors. Look for a conference…
August 21, 2025
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Can Investors Trust the Numbers Conference Call Takeaways
We hosted former Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner Bill Beach on a conference call yesterday to discuss the recent firing of Erika McEntarfer, President Trump’s new candidate for the position, and whether investors can…
August 18, 2025
[CVS, CI, UNH, ELV]: CA’s PBM Reform Bill Appears Next Up in PBM Fight
With California’s legislature coming back Monday from its summer recess for its final few weeks of the regular session, pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) legislation is still on the docket and likely to invite headline risk…
August 13, 2025
Senate 2026 Election Preview
We think the Senate is likely to remain in Republican hands after the 2026 mid-term elections, though with GOP at risk for losing seats, which could have implications for financial markets. We continue to view…
August 13, 2025
[PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AMED, AVAH, UNH]: Where Might CMS Go with Home Health Rates?
With slightly more than two weeks left in CMS’s comment period for the CY26 Medicare reimbursement proposal rule for home health [PNTG, EHAB, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH, AMED, UNH], we continue to expect mitigation from CMS’s…
August 12, 2025
Rx Most Favored Nation Company Risks
With President Trump demanding “binding commitments” from drug manufacturers to offer Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing by Sept. 29, we outline company-specific revenue risks and our expectations for an eventual regulatory proposal in 4Q25 /…
August 8, 2025
Stephen Miran Can Be Confirmed before the Next Fed Meeting
In our view, if President Trump insist, we believe that Stephen Miran can be confirmed by the Senate before the September 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the market already anticipates that the…