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April 29, 2026

Disney (DIS)/FCC: License Loss Extremely Unlikely

By Joe Lieber

We think it is very unlikely that Disney (DIS) will lose any of its eight FCC broadcast licenses because of the FCC’s investigation into whether Disney/ABC’s DEI programs crossed into unlawful employment discrimination. Even if…

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April 28, 2026

(HOOD, BULL, IBKR, CME, COIN, DKNG, FLUT) Prediction Markets: Narrow NDAA Restrictions Are Now the Base Case

By Joe Lieber

We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…

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April 27, 2026

Dialysis – CY27 Medicare Bundle: Phosphate Binders and Monthly Add-on Remain Swing Factors [DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal]

By Beth Steindecker

With the CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment proposal now under OMB review, uncertainty surrounding the extra payments for oral phosphate binders to dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] may emerge as an…

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April 27, 2026

Washington Policy Weekly: Reconciliation, California Social Media Ban, Fed Transition, Iran, and Redistricting in Play

By Joe Lieber

With both the House and Senate in session this week, there is a great deal happening in DC that will distract members from issues important to investors. For example, lawmakers will focus on reauthorizing the…

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April 24, 2026

Hospice: Program Integrity Still Overhang, but Large Agencies Insulated; How SSVI May Be Tweaked [CHE, PNTG, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH]

By Beth Steindecker

CHE’s comments on its 1Q26 earnings call this morning regarding the government’s efforts to rein in Medicare waste, fraud and abuse in hospice reinforce our prior views that program integrity, instead of the sufficiency of…

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April 23, 2026

RAPID Device Coverage: Rebrand or Brand New?

By John Leppard

The joint CMS / FDA press release this morning outlining the Regulatory Alignment for Predictable and Immediate Device (RAPID) coverage pathway for breakthrough medical devices strikes us more as a rebranding of the existing transitional…

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April 21, 2026

Another State PBM Ban on Pharmacies Invites Headline Noise – and Ultimately Legal Challenges [CVS, CI, UNH]

By Beth Steindecker

While the passage of another ban on PBM ownership of pharmacies – this time in Tennessee – could reignite some headline risk for CVS, CI, and UNH, we think the actual risk of it going…

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April 21, 2026

Being Coy on BALANCE – How Could CMS and Insurers Get to Yes [UNH, ELV, HUM, CVS, CNC, CI, MOH]

By Beth Steindecker

UnitedHealth’s (UNH) comments on its earnings call this morning, responding to a question about potential participation in CMS’s BALANCE obesity drug model, suggest that further design changes will be required for it – and likely…

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April 21, 2026

INSP: MAC Modifier Feedback Bolsters View

By John Leppard

Amid persistent investor questions on Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC) billing / coding requirements for Inspire Medical’s (INSP) Inspire V device, we continue to believe that the MACs will ultimately instruct providers to use the -52…

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April 20, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Reconciliation, Warsh, Export Controls, California Social Media in Focus

By Joe Lieber

With the House and Senate both in session this week, Washington’s focus will remain concentrated on the Iran-U.S. conflict, which heated up yesterday after the U.S. seized an Iranian ship. We have though an escalation…

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