Uncategorized


February 10, 2026

Ongoing Obamacare Market Evolution: Lower-Cost Plans Mix Shift Amidst Design Changes and Program Integrity Focus [OSCR, CNC, HQY, HCA, CYH]

By Beth Steindecker

Recent Obamacare developments (ACA proposal, House committee subpoenas, and OSCR’s earnings) reinforce this market’s durability and clear directional shift toward more-streamlined, lower-cost coverage and greater encouragement of enrollees to be more involved in their healthcare,…

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February 9, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Partial Gov. Shutdown, and the Farm Bill, the Highway Bill and Housing in the Spotlight

By Joe Lieber

With both the House and Senate are in session this week, we focus on a few developments we believe will be in focus in Washington this week:  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding expiration and why we view the risk of a prolonged shutdown as low,…

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February 5, 2026

Defense Spending and Reconciliation: Why a $450 Billion Increase Remains Unlikely

By Joe Lieber

Despite renewed congressional discussions around reconciliation, we continue to believe the most likely outcome for defense spending is a modest increase through the regular appropriations process, not a large, one-time infusion tied to the budget…

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February 4, 2026

CI Proposed FTC Settlement: What Might It Mean for PBMs? [CI, UNH, CVS, ELV, PGNY, CNC, HUM]

By Beth Steindecker

Cigna’s (CI) proposed settlement with the FTC over antitrust allegations regarding its PBM pricing, rebating and formulary practices around insulin likely establishes the basic framework that UNH and CVS will have to match to resolve…

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February 4, 2026

CareDx (CDNA): Coverage Risks Coming?

By John Leppard

We view CareDx (CDNA) as having potentially asymmetric downside risk going into the final MolDx local coverage determination (LCD) on organ transplant rejection, which we would expect to be released in the next 1-2 months…

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February 3, 2026

Hospices: Heightened CMS Scrutiny, Targeted CMS Enforcement, and Limited Sector-Wide Risk [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, Elara Caring, Compassus]

By Beth Steindecker

The recent public clash between CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) over Medicare fraud has renewed questions about whether the hospice industry [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH, private Elara Caring…

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February 2, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Govt Shutdown, the Warsh Confirmation Fight, USMCA, and Defense Sector

By Joe Lieber

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with congressional leaders especially under pressure to resolve the ongoing funding lapse. We focus on five key developments we believe matter most for the markets and Washington this week:  The partial government shutdown…

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January 29, 2026

Government Shutdown: ACA Subsidies, NIH and Defense Funding

By Joe Lieber

We continue to expect only a very short government shutdown, as negotiations intensify ahead of the January 30 (tomorrow) funding deadline, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the White House reportedly in active discussions to resolve the impasse over the…

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January 26, 2026

Medicare Advantage: CMS’s Negative Surprise of Flat Rates and Risk Adjustment Changes – What Now?

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s negative surprise to Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, ALHC, CVS, ELV, CNC] – which is also likely to spill over into weakness among insurers less or not exposed to this market [MOH, OSCR,…

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January 26, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: A Shutdown Now Seems Likely, 100% Canadian Tariffs, Ukraine-Russia, the ROAD to Housing Act and Rubio Testifies

By Joe Lieber

There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…

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