February 10, 2026
Ongoing Obamacare Market Evolution: Lower-Cost Plans Mix Shift Amidst Design Changes and Program Integrity Focus [OSCR, CNC, HQY, HCA, CYH]
Recent Obamacare developments (ACA proposal, House committee subpoenas, and OSCR’s earnings) reinforce this market’s durability and clear directional shift toward more-streamlined, lower-cost coverage and greater encouragement of enrollees to be more involved in their healthcare,…
February 9, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: Partial Gov. Shutdown, and the Farm Bill, the Highway Bill and Housing in the Spotlight
With both the House and Senate are in session this week, we focus on a few developments we believe will be in focus in Washington this week: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding expiration and why we view the risk of a prolonged shutdown as low,…
February 5, 2026
Defense Spending and Reconciliation: Why a $450 Billion Increase Remains Unlikely
Despite renewed congressional discussions around reconciliation, we continue to believe the most likely outcome for defense spending is a modest increase through the regular appropriations process, not a large, one-time infusion tied to the budget…
February 4, 2026
CI Proposed FTC Settlement: What Might It Mean for PBMs? [CI, UNH, CVS, ELV, PGNY, CNC, HUM]
Cigna’s (CI) proposed settlement with the FTC over antitrust allegations regarding its PBM pricing, rebating and formulary practices around insulin likely establishes the basic framework that UNH and CVS will have to match to resolve…
February 4, 2026
CareDx (CDNA): Coverage Risks Coming?
We view CareDx (CDNA) as having potentially asymmetric downside risk going into the final MolDx local coverage determination (LCD) on organ transplant rejection, which we would expect to be released in the next 1-2 months…
February 3, 2026
Hospices: Heightened CMS Scrutiny, Targeted CMS Enforcement, and Limited Sector-Wide Risk [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, Elara Caring, Compassus]
The recent public clash between CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) over Medicare fraud has renewed questions about whether the hospice industry [CHE, BTSG, PNTG, ADUS, AVAH, UNH, private Elara Caring…
February 2, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: Govt Shutdown, the Warsh Confirmation Fight, USMCA, and Defense Sector
Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with congressional leaders especially under pressure to resolve the ongoing funding lapse. We focus on five key developments we believe matter most for the markets and Washington this week: The partial government shutdown…
January 29, 2026
Government Shutdown: ACA Subsidies, NIH and Defense Funding
We continue to expect only a very short government shutdown, as negotiations intensify ahead of the January 30 (tomorrow) funding deadline, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the White House reportedly in active discussions to resolve the impasse over the…
January 26, 2026
Medicare Advantage: CMS’s Negative Surprise of Flat Rates and Risk Adjustment Changes – What Now?
CMS’s negative surprise to Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, ALHC, CVS, ELV, CNC] – which is also likely to spill over into weakness among insurers less or not exposed to this market [MOH, OSCR,…
January 26, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: A Shutdown Now Seems Likely, 100% Canadian Tariffs, Ukraine-Russia, the ROAD to Housing Act and Rubio Testifies
There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…