October 29, 2026
[CNC, MOH, HCA, THC, UHS] Medicaid Work Requirements: Court Ruling, State Flexibility Temper Disenrollment Fears
We view today’s federal court ruling broadening medical frailty exemptions from the Medicaid expansion work and community engagement requirements as incrementally favorable for Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH, ELV] and acute care and behavioral hospitals [HCA,…
October 29, 2026
(DKNG, FLUT, HOOD, CME) Prediction Markets: Utah Escalates the Battle as Democrats Prepare to Investigate
Utah’s decision yesterday to file criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders marks the latest escalation in the battle over prediction markets and could help accelerate a likely U.S. Supreme Court review of the dispute….
October 29, 2026
[DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal, American Renal] Better-Than-Expected Headline Spending Increase in Final CY27 Rule Masks Some Dialysis Pressures
At first glance, CMS’s final CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment rule, released late Wednesday, seems more favorable than expected for dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal and American Renal]. CMS projected a…
October 27, 2026
Democrats Are Closing in on Congressional Control, but Could Fetterman Change the Outcome?
With one week until the midterm elections, we continue to put the odds of Democrats retaking the House at more than 85%, and we expect them to emerge with a 12–17-seat majority when all is…
October 26, 2026
[OSCR, CNC, ELV, HCA, THC, DVA, FRE.DE] ACA Verification Proposal Tests, Rather Than Resets, Exchange Stabilization
We view CMS’s 2028 ACA pre-eligibility verification proposal, released late Friday, as an incremental risk to exchange insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV] and hospitals and dialysis centers [HCA, THC, ADRT, DVA, FRE.DE], rather than a new…
October 21, 2026
ABT & CMS’s Cologuard Plus Rate Risks
CMS’s release of its preliminary PAMA rate determinations earlier this week for lab services without private payer data implies a 14.9% reduction in ABT’s [EXAS] Cologuard Plus payments next year, taking the Medicare FFS rate…
October 20, 2026
[DVA, FRE.DE] HHS Kidney Plan: Less of a Plan, More of a Think Piece; Low Near-Term Policy Risk
Below are our thoughts on this afternoon’s HHS release of the National Kidney Dialysis Plan [DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal, Innovative Renal Care]: The stock reaction [DVA, FRE.DE] seems overblown, especially given the limited near-term…
October 19, 2026
Republicans May Have More Support Than the Polls Suggest
There are some reasons to believe the Republicans could perform better than current polling suggests, despite the fact that the political environment remains difficult for the GOP, with President Trump’s overall approval rating at just…
October 18, 2026
[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, AGL, ASTH] Medicare Advantage: Friday’s Proposal Leaves Bigger Questions Unanswered
Questions remain about potential CY28 policy pressures on Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, ALHC, CLOV, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, MOH] and value-based care providers [AGL, ASTH, PRVA, EVH, private Aledade], particularly Star Ratings, risk adjustment,…
October 16, 2026
[NUTX, TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health, UNH, CI, ELV] NSA Reform: Arbitration Under Fire, but Benchmark Shift Unlikely
Recent developments are raising the risk of future changes to the No Surprises Act, with implications for specialty physicians and hospitals [NUTX, private TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health] and commercial insurers [UNH, CI, ELV, CVS]….