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We believe the lawsuit New York state filed today has a 60%-65% chance of producing an injunction requiring Kalshi to stop offering sports-events contracts in the state within months, while the broader fight over whether…

Final FY27 Medicare reimbursement rules for hospices [CHE, ADUS, PNTG, BTSG, AVAH, Gentiva, Compassus, Elara], inpatient rehab facilities (IRFs) [EHC, Select Medical, Kindred], and inpatient psych facilities (IPFs) [UHS, ACHC], were largely in line with…

CMS’s final FY27 Medicare skilled nursing facility (SNF) reimbursement regulation, which was released late Wednesday, was largely uneventful and in line with expectations for SNF operators [ENSG, PACS] and related REITs [SBRA, OHI, LTC, CTRE]….

We wanted to update you on two California bills that we believe are likely to become law and would negatively Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Pinterest (PINS), Reddit (RDDT), TikTok, StubHub (STUB) and…

Tuesday’s CMS release detailing the financial components of its CY27 standalone Medicare Part D program and its decision to sunset the related two-year Part D Premium Stabilization Demo suggest additional uncertainty for standalone Part D…

We see Congress as another—and potentially more immediate—risk to ASML (ASML) and Tokyo Electron (TOELY) following yesterday’s weakness in semiconductor-equipment stocks on reports that China has begun producing domestic immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines. The…

The Senate is in session for the final two weeks before its month-long August recess begins on Friday, August 7, while the House is out until September 1. The pause in U.S. and Iranian attacks…

With the GUARD (Part D) & GLOBE (Part B) most favored nation (MFN) models under review at the White House, we give ~80% odds to the administration moving forward with final rules, where our estimates…

We expect Congress to approve more than $60 billion in additional defense funding through a bipartisan supplemental appropriations bill or reconciliation measure, on top of a 5%-8% increase in baseline FY27 defense spending. While our…

We continue to assign 1-in-3 odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year—and we wonder if that number is too high. The Senate has roughly two weeks to resolve several major disputes before leaving…