July 23, 2026
Defense Funding Is Likely, but Healthcare Cuts Could be Revived Post-Election
We expect Congress to approve more than $60 billion in additional defense funding through a bipartisan supplemental appropriations bill or reconciliation measure, on top of a 5%-8% increase in baseline FY27 defense spending. While our…
July 23, 2026
(COIN, HOOD, GLXY, CRCL) CLARITY Act: Time Is Running Out
We continue to assign 1-in-3 odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year—and we wonder if that number is too high. The Senate has roughly two weeks to resolve several major disputes before leaving…
July 22, 2026
[CNC, MOH, HCA, THC, UHS]: Medicaid Work Requirement Litigation Thoughts
We think the July 28 federal court hearing on the 25 states and the District of Columbia’s request to preliminarily enjoin CMS’s interim final rule (IFR) for Medicaid community engagement (CE) requirements for the Medicaid…
July 20, 2026
Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Funding, Reconciliation and China Export Controls (ASML, TOELY, NVDA, AMD)
The House and Senate are in session this week, but the legislative window before the August recess is narrowing. The House is scheduled to leave at the end of the week and return August 31,…
July 16, 2026
CDNA: Positive Coverage Surprise & Implications
Today’s final coverage decision on organ allograft rejection testing represents a clear positive for CareDx (CDNA), with meaningful improvements over both last year’s initial proposal and even our own expectations, likely neutralizing what had been…
July 15, 2026
PRVA, ASTH, RDNT, LMRI, USPH, RadPar: CY27 Physician Proposal Offers Modest Positives for ACOs, Radiology, and Physical Therapy Despite Small Base Rate Cut
CMS’s proposed CY27 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) includes an expected decrease in aggregate Medicare spending of $2.1B and up to a ~1.7% cut in the conversion factor (i.e., base rate) due to the expiration…
July 15, 2026
SIBN Up, BSX Down: Physician Rule Standouts
We view positive rate changes for SI-BONE’s (SIBN) iFuse 3D / TORQ and negative adjustments for Boston Scientific’s (BSX) Watchman as the most notable items for investors following release of CMS’s draft CY27 Physician Fee…
July 13, 2026
Policy Weekly: A Compressed July Calendar, Warsh Testimony, Crypto’s Difficult Path, Reconciliation and Defense
The House and Senate return this week with a crowded legislative agenda and fewer working days than lawmakers expected. The House is scheduled to be in session for only two weeks before starting its August…
July 10, 2026
Trade Policy Update: Section 301 Tariffs Likely to Replace Section 122, While USMCA Uncertainty Extends
We are watching two trade policy issues over the next several months: Whether the administration will replace the temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs that expire on July 24 with new Section 301 tariffs. We think…
July 9, 2026
Online Sports Betting: State Tax Risk, New State Openings, the Prediction-Market Wild Card and Federal Regulation and Legislation
We believe the online sports betting debate is moving in two directions. In already-legal states, the risk is higher tax rates on online sports betting operators (DKNG, FLUT, MGM, CZR) as states look for revenue…