Uncategorized


September 22, 2026

[OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, DVA, FRE.DE]: ACA Anti-Fraud Actions are More Noise Than New – and Potentially Material

By Beth Steindecker

This afternoon’s White House announcement of additional Obamacare anti-fraud actions does not change the direction of the ACA reset underway over the past year, nor our expectations for 2027 and 2028. While the actions appear…

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September 22, 2026

(OpenAI, Anthropic, GOOG, META, SPCX, NVDA, AMD) AI Regulation Update

By Joe Lieber

President Trump’s comments today at the UN—and despite the calls for regulation from the large AI frontier models CEOs—reinforces our view that this administration intends to maintain a light-touch approach to AI regulation absent a…

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September 22, 2026

Labs & Dx: Draft CY27 Rate Winners & Losers

By John Leppard

CMS’s preliminary CY27 rates for lab codes targeted through the next phase of adjustments under the Protecting Access to Medicare Act (PAMA), released last night, appear largely consistent with the ~$100 M risk projections previously…

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September 21, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Trump-Xi Summit, Trump’s UN Appearance, Iran and Permitting Reform in Focus

By Joe Lieber

The week ahead will be busy despite the fact that the House has left Washington until after the midterm elections. The Senate is scheduled to remain in session through Oct. 2 but could complete its…

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September 18, 2026

[PNTG, BTSG, AVAH, ADUS] Home Health Comment Review Reinforces Medicare Stable Outlook and Suggests Paths for Upside

By Beth Steindecker

Based on our review of stakeholder comments to CMS’s proposed CY27 Medicare home health (HH) payment rule, we continue to see an avenue for HH-specific upside in the final regulation due in late October/early November…

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September 16, 2026

AI Legislation: Congress Has No Clear Path on Frontier-Model Testing

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe that Congress is unlikely to enact any material AI legislation this year (and maybe not through 2028) due to opposition from President Trump and more importantly, lacking consensus on what Congress…

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September 14, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Crypto, AI and Russia Sanctions Before the Recess

By Joe Lieber

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, but this is the last week the lower chamber is expected to be in Washington before the midterm elections. The Senate is supposed to be…

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September 14, 2026

[HCA, THC, DVA, PRVA, ENSG, PNTG]: Mapping Provider Policy Risk / Upside by Congressional Control in November Elections

By Beth Steindecker

With the November elections less than two months away, we assess how different congressional outcomes could reshape the healthcare legislative agenda for hospitals, dialysis centers, value-based care (VBC) providers, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), post-acute care…

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September 11, 2026

EW: Asymptomatic Wins & Moderate AS Misses

By John Leppard

CMS’s finalized national coverage determination (NCD) last night should support an incremental ~120 bps in growth for EW’s TAVR franchise in 2027, with the agency largely codifying the criteria initially outlined in its June proposal….

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September 9, 2026

2026 Senate Elections: Democrats’ Progress

By Joe Lieber

We believe control of the Senate is a toss-up, although, if forced to choose, we give Republicans a slight edge in retaining control of the upper chamber. We continue to think Democrats are very likely…

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