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May 29, 2025

Trade Update: What’s Next after Reciprocal Tariffs?

By Joe Lieber

We have the following thoughts about the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement the reciprocal tariffs and how it might…

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May 28, 2025

T-Bill Demand, Credit Card Regulation and Stablecoins

By Joe Lieber

 We continue to believe that stablecoin legislation, known as the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) in the Senate, is likely to pass in that chamber in the next couple of weeks, creating a regulatory framework for…

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May 27, 2025

(KO, PEP, MNST, CELH, HSY) SNAP/Food Stamp Update: Reconciliation Cut and Soft Drinks and Candy in the Crosshairs

By Joe Lieber

The SNAP/food stamp program has been of focus lately as various states have filed for SNAP benefit waivers, and one, Nebraska, was granted approval for one. In addition, Republicans are looking to cut SNAP as…

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May 23, 2025

Trade Update: EU, Apple, Japan and Sectoral Tariffs

By Joe Lieber

Given Trump’s trade pronouncement on the EU and Apple (AAPL) today, we want to provide an update on trade and tariffs. We see a real potential for EU tariffs to go into effect at least…

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May 22, 2025

Reconciliation Update: Where do We go from Here?

By Joe Lieber

After House passage of a slightly revised reconciliation / tax bill early this morning, our 75% odds that this bill becomes law jumps to ~85%, and some might argue that’s too low.  Simply put, if…

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May 21, 2025

Medicare Advantage: Ramping Up RADV Audits Clearly a Threat, But Does It Head Off Other Risks? [HUM, UNH, CVS, ELV, ALHC]

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s announcement late Wednesday to turn the dial up on its risk-adjustment data verification (RADV) audits of Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts with an eye toward the entire landscape raises legitimate fears of recouping sizable past…

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May 19, 2025

Expected Federal Report on Fertility Benefits: Regulatory Recommendations Likely Incremental [PGNY]

By Beth Steindecker

Since we are at the 90-day mark after February 18 release of the White House’s Executive Order (EO) supportive of in-vitro fertilization (IVF), there is a hope that the Trump administration’s anticipated report of potential…

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May 19, 2025

Capitol Policy Weekly –May 19-23: Reconciliation, U.S. Debt Downgrade, and Trade

By Joe Lieber

We think Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to pull off passing the reconciliation / tax bill this week before Congress goes out on its Memorial Day recess, though getting there is going to take…

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May 16, 2025

[CNC, MOH, ELV, OSCR, ARDT, THC, ACHC]: What’s Next for Healthcare in House’s Reconciliation Proposal

By Beth Steindecker

As we head into this weekend, below are our latest thoughts on the healthcare components of the reconciliation bill and where things stand and what changes may be in store. This afternoon’s sidelining of the…

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May 15, 2025

NIH & Lab Tools: Law vs Politics

By John Leppard

Nearly five hours of testimony from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. yesterday on the administration’s FY26 budget request leaves us with little additional confidence in the overall trajectory for NIH spending and – by extension –…

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