May 1, 2026
(NVDA, AMD) Congress Adds China Chip Risk, But Trump Likely Wants Flexibility
Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) introduced his version of the AI Overwatch Act yesterday, which would, among other things, impose a two-year ban on sales of high-end AI chips such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell systems to…
May 1, 2026
Medicaid Work Requirements: Despite Certain Restrictive Actions, Overall State Flexibility Likely Limits Risk [CNC, MOH, HCA, THC, UHS]
A wave of state actions (AR, IA, ID, IN, MO, MT, NC, NE, NH) on Medicaid community engagement requirements (aka work requirements), spanning both accelerated implementation like today’s launch in NE and in some cases,…
April 29, 2026
Disney (DIS)/FCC: License Loss Extremely Unlikely
We think it is very unlikely that Disney (DIS) will lose any of its eight FCC broadcast licenses because of the FCC’s investigation into whether Disney/ABC’s DEI programs crossed into unlawful employment discrimination. Even if…
April 28, 2026
(HOOD, BULL, IBKR, CME, COIN, DKNG, FLUT) Prediction Markets: Narrow NDAA Restrictions Are Now the Base Case
We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…
April 27, 2026
Dialysis – CY27 Medicare Bundle: Phosphate Binders and Monthly Add-on Remain Swing Factors [DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal]
With the CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment proposal now under OMB review, uncertainty surrounding the extra payments for oral phosphate binders to dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] may emerge as an…
April 27, 2026
Washington Policy Weekly: Reconciliation, California Social Media Ban, Fed Transition, Iran, and Redistricting in Play
With both the House and Senate in session this week, there is a great deal happening in DC that will distract members from issues important to investors. For example, lawmakers will focus on reauthorizing the…
April 24, 2026
Hospice: Program Integrity Still Overhang, but Large Agencies Insulated; How SSVI May Be Tweaked [CHE, PNTG, BTSG, ADUS, AVAH]
CHE’s comments on its 1Q26 earnings call this morning regarding the government’s efforts to rein in Medicare waste, fraud and abuse in hospice reinforce our prior views that program integrity, instead of the sufficiency of…
April 23, 2026
RAPID Device Coverage: Rebrand or Brand New?
The joint CMS / FDA press release this morning outlining the Regulatory Alignment for Predictable and Immediate Device (RAPID) coverage pathway for breakthrough medical devices strikes us more as a rebranding of the existing transitional…
April 21, 2026
Another State PBM Ban on Pharmacies Invites Headline Noise – and Ultimately Legal Challenges [CVS, CI, UNH]
While the passage of another ban on PBM ownership of pharmacies – this time in Tennessee – could reignite some headline risk for CVS, CI, and UNH, we think the actual risk of it going…
April 21, 2026
Being Coy on BALANCE – How Could CMS and Insurers Get to Yes [UNH, ELV, HUM, CVS, CNC, CI, MOH]
UnitedHealth’s (UNH) comments on its earnings call this morning, responding to a question about potential participation in CMS’s BALANCE obesity drug model, suggest that further design changes will be required for it – and likely…