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January 26, 2026

Medicare Advantage: CMS’s Negative Surprise of Flat Rates and Risk Adjustment Changes – What Now?

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s negative surprise to Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, UNH, ALHC, CVS, ELV, CNC] – which is also likely to spill over into weakness among insurers less or not exposed to this market [MOH, OSCR,…

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January 26, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: A Shutdown Now Seems Likely, 100% Canadian Tariffs, Ukraine-Russia, the ROAD to Housing Act and Rubio Testifies

By Joe Lieber

There is now a real possibility of a short, over-the-weekend partial government shutdown at the end of this week, with six of the 12 appropriation bills having been signed into law, meaning those agencies will remain open, and current funding running out on Friday, January 30. After this…

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January 22, 2026

INSP: CMS Update Makes Pricing / Volumes a Bigger Lift

By John Leppard

CMS’s update this morning – indicating that CPT 64568 is not covered for obstructive sleep apnea under any national coverage determination (NCD) – is in keeping with the view we articulated just two weeks ago,…

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January 21, 2026

Insurer Policy Concessions, Political Theater, & the Limits of Cost Reforms [UNH, CI, CVS, ELV]

By Beth Steindecker

While UNH’s announcement this morning that it will rebate its expected 2026 ACA profits has drawn the most attention – and may pressure other Obamacare insurers [ELV, CI, HUM, CNC, OSCR, MOH] to make similar…

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January 20, 2026

CORRECTED: PBMs: Latest Spending Draft’s Watered-Down Reforms Are Incremental, Not Transformational [UNH, CVS, CI, CNC, ELV, HUM]

By Beth Steindecker

The latest draft of the government spending bill, released early this morning, presents an even more manageable policy outcome for pharmacy benefit managers (PBM) [UNH, CVS, CI, CNC, ELV, HUM] than previously expected; it revives…

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January 20, 2026

Tools, Dx, & Labs: Lawmakers Come Through

By John Leppard

The bipartisan, bicameral FY26 HHS appropriations bill text released this morning is largely consistent with our expectations, with incremental upside for life science tools (LST), diagnostics, and clinical labs. More specifically, the legislation – which…

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January 20, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Govt. Shutdown, Greenland Tariffs, Davos and Housing

By Joe Lieber

With the House in session this week, but the Senate out, House leaders are expected to continue work on FY2026 appropriations before the Jan. 31 deadline, and a short-term continuing resolution (CR) likely being needed…

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January 16, 2026

MedPAC Thoughts, Congress Unlikely to Listen

By Beth Steindecker

We expect the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission’s (MedPAC) FY/CY27 provider payment recommendations to meet the same fate as in prior years: largely ignored by Congress, though selectively cited by CMS to justify future regulatory tightening…

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January 15, 2026

Trump’s Great Healthcare Plan – We’ve Seen and Heard It Before

By Beth Steindecker

President Trump’s long-teased “Great Healthcare Plan”, released this morning, does little to meaningfully move the needle on healthcare redesign or cost containment beyond our prior expectations for legislative action affecting Obamacare insurers, non-ACA managed care…

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January 13, 2026

ACA Subsidy Deal Delayed, Not Derailed; 55% Odds Still Intact [OSCR, CNC, THC, CYH, DVA, FRE.DE]

By Beth Steindecker

Despite reports this afternoon that a bipartisan compromise on enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies will not be ready this week and is now expected to slip to the week of January 26, we continue to expect…

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