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June 11, 2026

[EW, MDT, ABT] TAVR: Incremental Gains From Expected Coverage

By John Leppard

In advance of the CMS draft coverage decision for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) due June 15 (final Sept. 15), we expect policy changes that – while positive – may be more incremental in their…

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June 11, 2026

(RTX, LMT, GD, BAE, BA) Defense Spending Update

By Joe Lieber

Despite President Trump’s comments on Truth Social about the need to pass Reconciliation 3.0 for an additional $350 billion in defense spending, we think he will be disappointed. We continue our long-held belief that: Defense…

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June 10, 2026

Hospitals, ASCs, Imaging Centers: Medicare Risk in Summer OPPS Proposal? [THC, HCA, CYH, ARDT, UHS, SGRY, UNH, RDNT]

By Beth Steindecker

While Medicaid and ACA enrollment concerns have dominated the policy overhang for hospitals this year, Medicare-related risks could move higher on investors’ radar with the release of CY27 hospital outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS) proposed…

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June 10, 2026

Trump and the USMCA

By Joe Lieber

We wanted to provide our thoughts on comments made by President Trump earlier this afternoon when he said he was not looking to renew the USMCA. We do not interpret Trump’s comments as signaling an…

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June 10, 2026

GKOS iDose: MAC Pushback Persists

By John Leppard

We see little reason to alter our base case regarding Medicare coverage of GKOS’s iDose following yesterday’s first contractor open meeting on the five-MAC draft LCD issued in late May. While we believe the MACs…

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June 8, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Reconciliation 3.0, Crypto Tax, Defense Right-to-Repair, and NextNav

By Joe Lieber

Both the House and Senate are in session this week, with the House expected to pass the $72 billion Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reconciliation bill after weeks of…

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June 3, 2026

DXCM: What to Expect When You’re Expecting CGM Coverage

By John Leppard

In advance of Dexcom’s (DXCM) readout of its CONNECT RCT this weekend, which management positions as a “powerful anchor” for broader Medicare CGM coverage in “all people with diabetes,” we ultimately expect a material increase…

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June 2, 2026

[CNC, MOH, ELV, HCA, THC, CYH] Medicaid Work Requirements: Deferment to States with Tighter Oversight in 2028; CMS Projects 15% Enrollment Decline

By Beth Steindecker

CMS’s long-awaited interim final rule implementing the One Big Beautiful Bill’s (OBBB) Medicaid Community Engagement (CE) requirements largely aligns with our expectations that CMS would defer to states on program design and implementation, which we…

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June 1, 2026

CLOV Star Ratings Legal Win Creates System Uncertainty but Potentially Strengthens HUM Appeal

By Beth Steindecker

Last week’s federal court ruling in favor Clover Health (CLOV) against CMS injects fresh uncertainty into the Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings and quality bonus payment framework [UNH, HUM, ELV, CVS, ALHC, CNC, MOH]. While…

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June 1, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Reconciliation Distraction, NDAA Tech Watch, Defense Spending and Privacy Preemption

By Joe Lieber

The House and Senate are both in session this week, but the market-relevant question is less about what Congress does over the next couple of weeks and more about how much time Republicans waste before…

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