October 27, 2026
Democrats Are Closing in on Congressional Control, but Could Fetterman Change the Outcome?
With one week until the midterm elections, we continue to put the odds of Democrats retaking the House at more than 85%, and we expect them to emerge with a 12–17-seat majority when all is…
October 26, 2026
[OSCR, CNC, ELV, HCA, THC, DVA, FRE.DE] ACA Verification Proposal Tests, Rather Than Resets, Exchange Stabilization
We view CMS’s 2028 ACA pre-eligibility verification proposal, released late Friday, as an incremental risk to exchange insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV] and hospitals and dialysis centers [HCA, THC, ADRT, DVA, FRE.DE], rather than a new…
October 21, 2026
ABT & CMS’s Cologuard Plus Rate Risks
CMS’s release of its preliminary PAMA rate determinations earlier this week for lab services without private payer data implies a 14.9% reduction in ABT’s [EXAS] Cologuard Plus payments next year, taking the Medicare FFS rate…
October 20, 2026
[DVA, FRE.DE] HHS Kidney Plan: Less of a Plan, More of a Think Piece; Low Near-Term Policy Risk
Below are our thoughts on this afternoon’s HHS release of the National Kidney Dialysis Plan [DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal, Innovative Renal Care]: The stock reaction [DVA, FRE.DE] seems overblown, especially given the limited near-term…
October 19, 2026
Republicans May Have More Support Than the Polls Suggest
There are some reasons to believe the Republicans could perform better than current polling suggests, despite the fact that the political environment remains difficult for the GOP, with President Trump’s overall approval rating at just…
October 18, 2026
[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, AGL, ASTH] Medicare Advantage: Friday’s Proposal Leaves Bigger Questions Unanswered
Questions remain about potential CY28 policy pressures on Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, ALHC, CLOV, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, MOH] and value-based care providers [AGL, ASTH, PRVA, EVH, private Aledade], particularly Star Ratings, risk adjustment,…
October 16, 2026
[NUTX, TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health, UNH, CI, ELV] NSA Reform: Arbitration Under Fire, but Benchmark Shift Unlikely
Recent developments are raising the risk of future changes to the No Surprises Act, with implications for specialty physicians and hospitals [NUTX, private TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health] and commercial insurers [UNH, CI, ELV, CVS]….
October 15, 2026
DXCM: CONNECT Published, Now We Wait
Yesterday’s publication of DXCM’s full non-insulin treated (NIT) Type 2 diabetes CONNECT study in NEJM is likely the last puzzle piece needed for the DME MACs to move forward with an expanded Medicare coverage proposal,…
October 15, 2026
ASML: Revisiting the MATCH Act After Yesterday’s Earnings
After yesterday’s earnings report for ASML (ASML), we wanted to update investors on the MATCH Act, which is being debated in Congress and would likely have a material impact on the company if passed. We…
October 14, 2026
What a Democratic Congress Would Mean for Wall Street
We continue to believe there is an 85% chance Democrats win control of the House and a 60% chance they also take the Senate in November. Given Democratic control of the House is very likely…