Uncategorized


October 27, 2026

Democrats Are Closing in on Congressional Control, but Could Fetterman Change the Outcome?

By Joe Lieber

With one week until the midterm elections, we continue to put the odds of Democrats retaking the House at more than 85%, and we expect them to emerge with a 12–17-seat majority when all is…

Read More >>

October 26, 2026

[OSCR, CNC, ELV, HCA, THC, DVA, FRE.DE] ACA Verification Proposal Tests, Rather Than Resets, Exchange Stabilization

By Beth Steindecker

We view CMS’s 2028 ACA pre-eligibility verification proposal, released late Friday, as an incremental risk to exchange insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV] and hospitals and dialysis centers [HCA, THC, ADRT, DVA, FRE.DE], rather than a new…

Read More >>

October 21, 2026

ABT & CMS’s Cologuard Plus Rate Risks

By John Leppard

CMS’s release of its preliminary PAMA rate determinations earlier this week for lab services without private payer data implies a 14.9% reduction in ABT’s [EXAS] Cologuard Plus payments next year, taking the Medicare FFS rate…

Read More >>

October 20, 2026

[DVA, FRE.DE] HHS Kidney Plan: Less of a Plan, More of a Think Piece; Low Near-Term Policy Risk

By Beth Steindecker

Below are our thoughts on this afternoon’s HHS release of the National Kidney Dialysis Plan [DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal, Innovative Renal Care]: The stock reaction [DVA, FRE.DE] seems overblown, especially given the limited near-term…

Read More >>

October 19, 2026

Republicans May Have More Support Than the Polls Suggest

By Joe Lieber

There are some reasons to believe the Republicans could perform better than current polling suggests, despite the fact that the political environment remains difficult for the GOP, with President Trump’s overall approval rating at just…

Read More >>

October 18, 2026

[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, AGL, ASTH] Medicare Advantage: Friday’s Proposal Leaves Bigger Questions Unanswered

By Beth Steindecker

Questions remain about potential CY28 policy pressures on Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [HUM, ALHC, CLOV, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, MOH] and value-based care providers [AGL, ASTH, PRVA, EVH, private Aledade], particularly Star Ratings, risk adjustment,…

Read More >>

October 16, 2026

[NUTX, TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health, UNH, CI, ELV] NSA Reform: Arbitration Under Fire, but Benchmark Shift Unlikely

By Beth Steindecker

Recent developments are raising the risk of future changes to the No Surprises Act, with implications for specialty physicians and hospitals [NUTX, private TeamHealth, Radiology Partners, SCP Health] and commercial insurers [UNH, CI, ELV, CVS]….

Read More >>

October 15, 2026

DXCM: CONNECT Published, Now We Wait

By John Leppard

Yesterday’s publication of DXCM’s full non-insulin treated (NIT) Type 2 diabetes CONNECT study in NEJM is likely the last puzzle piece needed for the DME MACs to move forward with an expanded Medicare coverage proposal,…

Read More >>

October 15, 2026

ASML: Revisiting the MATCH Act After Yesterday’s Earnings

By Joe Lieber

After yesterday’s earnings report for ASML (ASML), we wanted to update investors on the MATCH Act, which is being debated in Congress and would likely have a material impact on the company if passed. We…

Read More >>

October 14, 2026

What a Democratic Congress Would Mean for Wall Street

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe there is an 85% chance Democrats win control of the House and a 60% chance they also take the Senate in November. Given Democratic control of the House is very likely…

Read More >>