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October 14, 2026

What a Democratic Congress Would Mean for Wall Street

By Joe Lieber

We continue to believe there is an 85% chance Democrats win control of the House and a 60% chance they also take the Senate in November. Given Democratic control of the House is very likely…

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October 9, 2026

(MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL, CRWV, EQIX, DLR, NVDA, AMD) Blue Wave: AI & Data Center Taxes / Regs

By Joe Lieber

A proposal by Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) this week likely gives investors an idea of what’s in store for the AI / data center complex if Democrats take control of Congress next month (our base…

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October 9, 2026

[HUM, CLOV, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC]: MA Star Ratings Raises Stake for Litigation Anew and Policy Debate

By Beth Steindecker

While last night’s widely telegraphed Star Ratings delivered clear winners [HUM, CLOV, Devoted Health (pvt)] and losers [ALHC] (and a mixed bag for UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, and MOH), potentially underappreciated methodological choices by CMS…

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October 8, 2026

[RDNT, LMRI, Radiology Partners] CMS’s OPPS Imaging Site-Neutral Proposal Likely to Stick, Freestanding Imaging Still Poised to Benefit

By Beth Steindecker

Despite lopsided stakeholder opposition, we continue to expect CMS to finalize largely as initially sought its CY27 proposal cutting Medicare reimbursement for 337 common non-contrast imaging procedures at grandfathered off-campus hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs) while…

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October 7, 2026

The Investigation Risk: What a Democratic Congress Would Target in 2027

By Joe Lieber

It is no surprise that a Democratic takeover of even one House of Congress will lead to ambitious, aggressive and continuous investigations into the Trump administration, President Trump’s family and associates, and companies that have…

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October 6, 2026

[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, CNC, CLOV] Appeals Court Seems Skeptical of CMS But RADV Overhang Not Going Away Completely

By Beth Steindecker

Following yesterday’s oral appellate arguments over HUM’s challenge to Medicare Advantage (MA) risk adjustment-related audit rules, we believe a majority of the three-judge panel is likely to side with the company and the lower court…

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October 1, 2026

Rx Pricing: Part B MFN Rule & Part D Implications

By John Leppard

While CMS’s finalized GLOBE most favored nation (MFN) rule for Medicare Part B meaningfully narrows its reach / implications, we view its methodology for excluding manufacturers participating in the GENEROUS MFN Medicaid model as legally…

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September 30, 2026

[Municipal Hospitals, HCA, THC, OPCH, CVS, MRK, PFE]: 340B Drug Reimbursement Expectations in the Final Medicare OPPS Rule

By Beth Steindecker

With CMS likely to release its final CY27 Medicare Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) rule in early November, we continue to expect a substantial cut to Medicare payment for 340B-acquired drugs administered in participating…

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September 29, 2026

(MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL, CRWV, DLR, EQIX, NVDA, AMD, VRT) Data Center Opposition Will Not Likely End with the Midterms

By Joe Lieber

With data center moratoriums recently gaining steam across the country, we do not expect political opposition to data centers to fade after the midterms. Governors facing elections in 2027 and 2028 may face growing pressure…

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September 28, 2026

Capitol Policy Weekly: Data Center Costs, Stock Trading, Permitting and Chinese Vehicle Imports

By Joe Lieber

This week is the Senate’s last scheduled week before the elections. Senators plan to pass the Protect College Sports Act on Monday, an odd legislative choice, in our view, when voters are focused on inflation…

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