May 7, 2026
iRhythm (IRTC): Final LCD Signals Relief, Modest Headwind
We suspect iRhythm (IRTC) faces both relief and little more than a modest growth headwind following a finalized local coverage determination (LCD) from its primary Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC) this morning. In keeping with expectations…
May 7, 2026
INSP: MAC Modifier Mandate
Medicare Administrative Contractor (WPS) WPS – with jurisdiction over ~13% of INSP implants – this morning updated its hypoglossal nerve LCD billing article to instruct physicians to bill for Inspire V services with a -52…
May 7, 2026
Medicare Advantage: Policy Risk Panoply
With 1Q26 earnings now largely complete for the major Medicare Advantage (MA) insurers [UNH, HUM, ALHC, CVS, ELV, CNC, MOH], near-term MA policy risks remain less acute, though far from extinguished. Congressional cuts remain unlikely…
May 5, 2026
Inspire Medical & Messy Medicare Modifiers
We view Inspire Medical’s (INSP) commentary / guidance on the risk of persistent coding and reimbursement headwinds throughout 2026 (-$120M to -$150M) as appropriately characterizing the current uncertainty, with limited prospects for near-term clarity. In…
May 4, 2026
(META) New Mexico Public Nuisance Remedies Trial Begins – Material Downside Risk and Precedent Implications
The remedies phase of State of New Mexico v. Meta Platforms (META), Inc.—a landmark public-nuisance bench trial—opens this morning in Santa Fe District Court before Judge Bryan Biedscheid, who also oversaw the earlier jury trial…
May 1, 2026
(NVDA, AMD) Congress Adds China Chip Risk, But Trump Likely Wants Flexibility
Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) introduced his version of the AI Overwatch Act yesterday, which would, among other things, impose a two-year ban on sales of high-end AI chips such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell systems to…
May 1, 2026
Medicaid Work Requirements: Despite Certain Restrictive Actions, Overall State Flexibility Likely Limits Risk [CNC, MOH, HCA, THC, UHS]
A wave of state actions (AR, IA, ID, IN, MO, MT, NC, NE, NH) on Medicaid community engagement requirements (aka work requirements), spanning both accelerated implementation like today’s launch in NE and in some cases,…
April 29, 2026
Disney (DIS)/FCC: License Loss Extremely Unlikely
We think it is very unlikely that Disney (DIS) will lose any of its eight FCC broadcast licenses because of the FCC’s investigation into whether Disney/ABC’s DEI programs crossed into unlawful employment discrimination. Even if…
April 28, 2026
(HOOD, BULL, IBKR, CME, COIN, DKNG, FLUT) Prediction Markets: Narrow NDAA Restrictions Are Now the Base Case
We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…
April 27, 2026
Dialysis – CY27 Medicare Bundle: Phosphate Binders and Monthly Add-on Remain Swing Factors [DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal]
With the CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment proposal now under OMB review, uncertainty surrounding the extra payments for oral phosphate binders to dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] may emerge as an…