January 21, 2026
Insurer Policy Concessions, Political Theater, & the Limits of Cost Reforms [UNH, CI, CVS, ELV]
While UNH’s announcement this morning that it will rebate its expected 2026 ACA profits has drawn the most attention – and may pressure other Obamacare insurers [ELV, CI, HUM, CNC, OSCR, MOH] to make similar…
January 15, 2026
Trump’s Great Healthcare Plan – We’ve Seen and Heard It Before
President Trump’s long-teased “Great Healthcare Plan”, released this morning, does little to meaningfully move the needle on healthcare redesign or cost containment beyond our prior expectations for legislative action affecting Obamacare insurers, non-ACA managed care…
January 13, 2026
ACA Subsidy Deal Delayed, Not Derailed; 55% Odds Still Intact [OSCR, CNC, THC, CYH, DVA, FRE.DE]
Despite reports this afternoon that a bipartisan compromise on enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies will not be ready this week and is now expected to slip to the week of January 26, we continue to expect…
December 17, 2025
Obamacare Subsidy Developments: Lots of Movement but Still in Same Place for Now; Path Remains for Subsidy Deal in 1Q
Today’s news that four House Republicans joining House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-NY) discharge petition for a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies – and with House GOP leadership narrowly passing its own…
December 4, 2025
ACA Situation Stuck in Place but We Remain Optimistic of Eventual HIX Deal with a Slipping Timeline
The recent fits-and-starts for around a compromise to avert expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) at year-end unsurprisingly remains stalled, with no meaningful concessions from either side’s leaders. As we head into…
November 24, 2025
ACA HIX Fix: Enactment Odds Improve But Details TBD [OSCR, CNC, ACHC, THC, CYH, UHS, DVA, HQY]
Media reports (here, here, here) indicate that an ACA compromise may be imminent, with President Trump reportedly offering to support extension of the enhanced premium tax subsidies (with limitations) while channeling a portion into health…
November 19, 2025
Finance Committee Hearing: Still Think ACA Subsidy Deal is More Likely Even If Late [OSCR, CNC, CYH, UHS, DVA, FMS, HQY, WBS]
This morning’s Senate Finance Committee hearing on rising healthcare costs did little to break the stalemate on Obamacare, but no one expected a breakthrough today. The hearing primarily served as a venue for both sides…
November 9, 2025
Obamacare HIX Fix: HSAs for All or Compromise on Subsidy Changes? We Still Think the Latter [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH, UNH, HQY, WBS, EHTH]
President Trump’s Truth Social posts over the weekend, along with that of other Republicans, suggest an existential threat for Obamacare insurers [OSCR, CNC, ELV, MOH, UNH] and potentially other commercial health insurers [CI, CVS] while…
October 6, 2025
Still Optimistic on Obamacare Subsidy Fix with Reforms, But Less So on Age Rating and Reinsurance [OSCR, CNC, ELV, CYH, THC, HCA, UHS, ACHC]
Nearly a week into the government shutdown, with the parties dug in, we continue to expect Congress to “fix” the enhanced Obamacare subsidy cliff, benefiting exchange insurers, hospitals, and behavioral health providers. The questions remain…
September 25, 2025
Obamacare Fix: Still Optimistic, But Not Clean or Near Term [OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, UHS, ACHC]
We continue to be optimistic and think the odds have risen above 50% that Congress later this year reaches a compromise to “fix” the expiring enhanced Obamacare subsidies, which would further remove some of the…