January 17, 2025
[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks
Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…
December 11, 2024
Trump’s Anti-Trust Team Taking Shape
President-elect Trump’s announcement last night that he intends to name current FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the agency reinforces our long-held view that, in general, M&A / antitrust under Trump will be more market…
November 27, 2024
LLY, NVO, HIMS: GLP-1 Coverage Questions & Implied Sales
Following our pre-rule report yesterday on CMS’s proposal to extend Medicare / Medicaid coverage to anti-obesity medications (AOMs), we update our assumptions below based on the details included in the release itself. More specifically: We…
November 26, 2024
[LLY, NVO] Quick Takes on Obesity Coverage Surprise
While likely implying a ~2% revenue tailwind for LLY and NVO, if implemented, we take a cautious view of this morning’s surprise White House announcement that it intends to facilitate broader Medicare / Medicaid coverage…
October 11, 2024
[LLY, NVO] GLP-1s & CBO Data Dive
Key Takeaways: We continue to think legislation to allow Medicare Part D coverage of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) [Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO)] is unlikely to pass this year, despite the relatively modest budgetary estimates…