NVO (US)


December 10, 2025

HIMS Hit by SAFE Drugs Bill Headlines, But Low Enactment Odds in Near Term

By Beth Steindecker

Given today’s weakness in HIMS following the introduction of a drug compounding pharmacy oversight bill (HR 6509) by Reps. Rudy Yakym (R-IN) and André Carson (D-IN), we have received some inbound questions about the near-term…

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November 7, 2025

Obesity Drug Pricing Deal: Devil in the Details

By John Leppard

As outlined by the Trump administration, we view yesterday’s obesity drug pricing deal with NVO and LLY as a modest near-term positive (potentially better for LLY), with the $245 / mo. price point for Medicare…

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November 5, 2025

[LLY, NVO] Obesity Rx Deal Expectations

By John Leppard

Following reports yesterday [here, here] that the White House may announce an agreement with LLY and NVO as early as tomorrow to make obesity products available for $149 / month, “in return for coverage” under…

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September 10, 2025

Rx Advertising: Policy Quick Take

By John Leppard

While we can at this point give no better than tossup odds to FDA plans to curtail direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertisements surviving inevitable legal challenges, we caution that the enforcement approach outlined by the agency…

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June 18, 2025

Rx Advertisements & RFK: Legal Guardrails

By John Leppard

Amid reports that HHS is considering steps to curtail direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertisements – with negative implications for high spenders in this area [ABBV, NVO, REGN] – we see significant impediments to how far /…

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May 12, 2025

Rx Pricing’s Lucy & the Football Moment?

By John Leppard

Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…

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April 4, 2025

[NVO, LLY] No Medicare / Medicaid Coverage for Obesity Drugs

By John Leppard

With no more than a perfunctory reference this afternoon, CMS announces that it will not be finalizing a Biden proposal to allow Medicare Part D plans to cover anti-obesity medications (AOMs) while requiring it of…

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January 29, 2025

RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing

By John Leppard

The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…

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January 17, 2025

[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks

By John Leppard

Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…

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December 11, 2024

Trump’s Anti-Trust Team Taking Shape

By Joe Lieber

President-elect Trump’s announcement last night that he intends to name current FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the agency reinforces our long-held view that, in general, M&A / antitrust under Trump will be more market…

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