December 10, 2025
HIMS Hit by SAFE Drugs Bill Headlines, But Low Enactment Odds in Near Term
Given today’s weakness in HIMS following the introduction of a drug compounding pharmacy oversight bill (HR 6509) by Reps. Rudy Yakym (R-IN) and André Carson (D-IN), we have received some inbound questions about the near-term…
November 7, 2025
Obesity Drug Pricing Deal: Devil in the Details
As outlined by the Trump administration, we view yesterday’s obesity drug pricing deal with NVO and LLY as a modest near-term positive (potentially better for LLY), with the $245 / mo. price point for Medicare…
November 5, 2025
[LLY, NVO] Obesity Rx Deal Expectations
Following reports yesterday [here, here] that the White House may announce an agreement with LLY and NVO as early as tomorrow to make obesity products available for $149 / month, “in return for coverage” under…
September 10, 2025
Rx Advertising: Policy Quick Take
While we can at this point give no better than tossup odds to FDA plans to curtail direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertisements surviving inevitable legal challenges, we caution that the enforcement approach outlined by the agency…
June 18, 2025
Rx Advertisements & RFK: Legal Guardrails
Amid reports that HHS is considering steps to curtail direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertisements – with negative implications for high spenders in this area [ABBV, NVO, REGN] – we see significant impediments to how far /…
May 12, 2025
Rx Pricing’s Lucy & the Football Moment?
Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…
April 4, 2025
[NVO, LLY] No Medicare / Medicaid Coverage for Obesity Drugs
With no more than a perfunctory reference this afternoon, CMS announces that it will not be finalizing a Biden proposal to allow Medicare Part D plans to cover anti-obesity medications (AOMs) while requiring it of…
January 29, 2025
RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing
The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…
January 17, 2025
[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks
Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…
December 11, 2024
Trump’s Anti-Trust Team Taking Shape
President-elect Trump’s announcement last night that he intends to name current FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the agency reinforces our long-held view that, in general, M&A / antitrust under Trump will be more market…