January 29, 2025
RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing
The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…
January 17, 2025
[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks
Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…
December 11, 2024
Trump’s Anti-Trust Team Taking Shape
President-elect Trump’s announcement last night that he intends to name current FTC commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the agency reinforces our long-held view that, in general, M&A / antitrust under Trump will be more market…
November 27, 2024
LLY, NVO, HIMS: GLP-1 Coverage Questions & Implied Sales
Following our pre-rule report yesterday on CMS’s proposal to extend Medicare / Medicaid coverage to anti-obesity medications (AOMs), we update our assumptions below based on the details included in the release itself. More specifically: We…
November 26, 2024
[LLY, NVO] Quick Takes on Obesity Coverage Surprise
While likely implying a ~2% revenue tailwind for LLY and NVO, if implemented, we take a cautious view of this morning’s surprise White House announcement that it intends to facilitate broader Medicare / Medicaid coverage…
October 11, 2024
[LLY, NVO] GLP-1s & CBO Data Dive
Key Takeaways: We continue to think legislation to allow Medicare Part D coverage of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) [Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO)] is unlikely to pass this year, despite the relatively modest budgetary estimates…