April 3, 2025
Senate Budget Resolution & Healthcare Offsets
In response to yesterday’s Senate budget resolution proposal and the GOP’s assumption of the current policy baseline for scoring purposes, we think Congress continues to target Medicaid, Medicare hospital site neutrality, and PBM reforms as…
March 10, 2025
[OSCR, ELV, CNC, HCA, THC]: Targeting Obamacare Program Integrity in Rulemaking and Legislation
With all eyes focused on whether Congress will extend the enhanced ACA subsidies or let them lapse – we remain optimistic of a middle ground (revision and extension) – we caution investors about the headline…
February 23, 2025
Medicaid Reform Watch: Still Early On – What to Watch for [CNC, MOH, ARDT, CYH, ENSG, ADUS]
As the budget resolution process and subsequent reconciliation strategy unfolds, Medicaid reforms that have posed headline enrollment and payment risk to Medicaid insurers [CNC, MOH, ELV], dual eligible insurers [UNH, HUM, ELV, CVS],hospitals [ARDT, CYH,…
February 10, 2025
Sizing Medicaid Work Requirement Risks [CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, ARDT, ENS, ADUS]
As we await the House’s budget reconciliation strategy this week, the Senate FY25 budget resolution proposal released late Friday bolsters our expectations for Medicaid work requirements, which we see as one the most likely Medicaid-related…
January 29, 2025
RFK Risks Post-Confirmation Hearing
The four hours RFK spent with the Senate Finance Committee today bolsters our view that he is likely to be confirmed as HHS Secretary. Despite investor concerns with his antipathy for corporate medicine, we think…
January 28, 2025
[CNC, MOH, ARDT, UHS, ENSG, ADUS]: Medicaid Funding & Best Bet on OMB Funding Memo
We lean against yesterday’s OMB directive for temporarily pausing federal funding for grants, loans and programs applying largely to Medicaid’s payments to the states for Medicaid insurers (CNC, MOH, ELV, UNH, CVS) or for reimbursements…
November 25, 2024
[CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, HCA, CYH, UHS]: Growing Overhang from Medicaid Legislative Reforms, But Watch for Vulnerable GOP Pushback
Key Takeaways: The risk overhang from potential Medicaid reforms to managed care organizations, hospitals, behavioral facilities, and other providers focused on these low-income enrollees will likely grow as the Trump administration staffs up and Congress…
November 7, 2024
[OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV] Enhanced Obamacare Exchange Subsidies – How Might They Stay?
Key Takeaways: We think investors exposed to insurers in the ACA exchange markets (OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV) are underestimating the odds that the next Congress temporarily extends some of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to focus…
October 21, 2024
Managed Care Policy Puts and Takes
Key Takeaways: We remain optimistic about the long-term policy outlook for the managed care industry, despite the puts and takes for different business lines associated with the outcome of the upcoming elections on Nov. 5….