November 7, 2025
Obesity Drug Pricing Deal: Devil in the Details
As outlined by the Trump administration, we view yesterday’s obesity drug pricing deal with NVO and LLY as a modest near-term positive (potentially better for LLY), with the $245 / mo. price point for Medicare…
November 5, 2025
[LLY, NVO] Obesity Rx Deal Expectations
Following reports yesterday [here, here] that the White House may announce an agreement with LLY and NVO as early as tomorrow to make obesity products available for $149 / month, “in return for coverage” under…
October 6, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: Government Shutdown, Farmer Aid and Drug Pricing
While the government shutdown is the top issue in Washington this week, we could also expect: 1) positive news out of the White House on aid for farmers, which is likely positive for the farm…
October 1, 2025
Rx Pricing: More Shoes to Drop or Clearing Event?
The White House’s Rx pricing agreement with PFE yesterday – with the promise of additional company deals next week – may provide industry with some incremental goodwill, but we are dubious that it takes broader…
September 10, 2025
Rx Advertising: Policy Quick Take
While we can at this point give no better than tossup odds to FDA plans to curtail direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertisements surviving inevitable legal challenges, we caution that the enforcement approach outlined by the agency…
August 12, 2025
Rx Most Favored Nation Company Risks
With President Trump demanding “binding commitments” from drug manufacturers to offer Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing by Sept. 29, we outline company-specific revenue risks and our expectations for an eventual regulatory proposal in 4Q25 /…
May 12, 2025
Rx Pricing’s Lucy & the Football Moment?
Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…
April 4, 2025
[NVO, LLY] No Medicare / Medicaid Coverage for Obesity Drugs
With no more than a perfunctory reference this afternoon, CMS announces that it will not be finalizing a Biden proposal to allow Medicare Part D plans to cover anti-obesity medications (AOMs) while requiring it of…
January 17, 2025
[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks
Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…
December 9, 2024
[WBA, CVS] SCOTUS Sides with Arkansas Law; For Now, Contract Pharmacies Have Upper Hand vs. Pharma
This morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) afforded a win to state laws protecting the use of contract retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI, RAD) that arehired by 340B hospitals and clinics…