May 12, 2025
Rx Pricing’s Lucy & the Football Moment?
Investors should view today’s drug pricing Executive Order (EO) with relief, and while the biopharma industry remains on notice for potential future regulatory actions, we suspect the courts would intervene to stop any overly broad…
April 4, 2025
[NVO, LLY] No Medicare / Medicaid Coverage for Obesity Drugs
With no more than a perfunctory reference this afternoon, CMS announces that it will not be finalizing a Biden proposal to allow Medicare Part D plans to cover anti-obesity medications (AOMs) while requiring it of…
January 17, 2025
[NVO, BHC, TEVA] Quantifying IRA Price Negotiation Risks
Our analysis of the drugs included in the CY27 cycle of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) announced this morning implies a 3%-4% headwind for NVO relative to consensus CY27 revenues, with a…
December 9, 2024
[WBA, CVS] SCOTUS Sides with Arkansas Law; For Now, Contract Pharmacies Have Upper Hand vs. Pharma
This morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) afforded a win to state laws protecting the use of contract retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI, RAD) that arehired by 340B hospitals and clinics…
December 3, 2024
[WBA, CVS, WMT] 340B Case on Deck at SCOTUS Conference; Regardless of Resolution, Target Remains on 340B
We could see some short-term positive news for retail, mail-order and specialty pharmacies (WBA, CVS, WMT, UNH, CI) if the Supreme Court decides not to hear the appeal of PhRMA v. McClain, a development that…
November 27, 2024
LLY, NVO, HIMS: GLP-1 Coverage Questions & Implied Sales
Following our pre-rule report yesterday on CMS’s proposal to extend Medicare / Medicaid coverage to anti-obesity medications (AOMs), we update our assumptions below based on the details included in the release itself. More specifically: We…
November 26, 2024
[LLY, NVO] Quick Takes on Obesity Coverage Surprise
While likely implying a ~2% revenue tailwind for LLY and NVO, if implemented, we take a cautious view of this morning’s surprise White House announcement that it intends to facilitate broader Medicare / Medicaid coverage…
October 11, 2024
[LLY, NVO] GLP-1s & CBO Data Dive
Key Takeaways: We continue to think legislation to allow Medicare Part D coverage of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) [Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO)] is unlikely to pass this year, despite the relatively modest budgetary estimates…