July 23, 2026
(COIN, HOOD, GLXY, CRCL) CLARITY Act: Time Is Running Out
We continue to assign 1-in-3 odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year—and we wonder if that number is too high. The Senate has roughly two weeks to resolve several major disputes before leaving…
July 9, 2026
Online Sports Betting: State Tax Risk, New State Openings, the Prediction-Market Wild Card and Federal Regulation and Legislation
We believe the online sports betting debate is moving in two directions. In already-legal states, the risk is higher tax rates on online sports betting operators (DKNG, FLUT, MGM, CZR) as states look for revenue…
April 28, 2026
(HOOD, BULL, IBKR, CME, COIN, DKNG, FLUT) Prediction Markets: Narrow NDAA Restrictions Are Now the Base Case
We believe Congress is likely to partially restrict prediction markets this year, with the most likely path being language attached to the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which we would expect to become law…