September 22, 2026
(OpenAI, Anthropic, GOOG, META, SPCX, NVDA, AMD) AI Regulation Update
President Trump’s comments today at the UN—and despite the calls for regulation from the large AI frontier models CEOs—reinforces our view that this administration intends to maintain a light-touch approach to AI regulation absent a…
August 27, 2026
Semiconductor Tariffs: Phase Two Is Coming
Following reports that the Trump administration is considering eliminating the tariff exemptions for data centers and extending Sec. 232 semiconductor tariffs to servers and other chip products, we assign ~70% odds that Trump announces expanded…
April 17, 2026
(META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) California’s Bipartisan Push to Ban Under-16s from Social Media Clears First Hurdle
We assign roughly 65% probability that California’s pending legislation, AB 1709, which is a bipartisan ban on kids under 16 years old from creating accounts on social media platforms (META, GOOGL, SNAP, TikTok) that have…
September 10, 2025
Trade Potpourri: IEEPA, GOOG and the EU, China and India and the GAIN AI Act (NVDA, AMD)
Below our are thoughts on the following recent trade issue developments: The U.S. Supreme Court decision to hear the Trump administration’s appeal of a lower court ruling invalidating the president’s reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs under…
July 28, 2025
Capitol Policy Weekly: Trade, Govt Spending, Gambling, and AVs
With the House out of session until September 2 and the Senate scheduled to leave for its August recess at the end of this week, trade seems likely to continue to dominate the headlines as…