January 22, 2025
[OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, WELL] Optimistic on ACA Subsidies, But Watching Other Risks
While investors in insurers and providers seem most concerned about the fate of the expiring enhanced ACA subsidies, which we still expect to be revised but ultimately extended later this year, other – albeit smaller…
January 16, 2025
UNH: Though Confident, Public Policy Questions Remain
UnitedHealth’s (UNH) comments during its 4Q and full year 2024 earnings call about changes its it taking to head off certain public policy concerns (PBMs, prior authorization/claim denials) seem like the company is in catch-up…
January 14, 2025
[CVS, CI, UNH]: FTC 2nd (Negative) Report on PBMs Doesn’t Change Overhang Trajectory
The FTC’s unanimously-supported release of its second interim report on pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), focused on specialty drug dispensing at affiliated pharmacies [CVS, CI, UNH] that generated an extra $7.3B in revenue over six years,…
December 11, 2024
[CVS, CI, UNH] PBMs: Proposed Ban on Pharmacy Ownership, New FTC Chair Nominee, Trump’s Comments, Healthcare Extenders, Oh My!
Key Takeaways: While we had expected pharmacy benefit managers [PBMs] to remain in the legislative / regulatory crosshairs during the lame duck and into the Trump administration, recent developments confirm that the anti-PBM sentiment is…
December 6, 2024
[HUM, ALHC, UNH, CVS, ELV, AGL] Expectations for CY26 Medicare Advantage Advance Notice
KEY TAKEAWAYS: We expect the proposed YoY change in the CY26 benchmarks for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans is likely to be relatively flat, with a range between -1% and +1% that excludes coding trend, but…
November 25, 2024
[CNC, MOH, ELV, THC, HCA, CYH, UHS]: Growing Overhang from Medicaid Legislative Reforms, But Watch for Vulnerable GOP Pushback
Key Takeaways: The risk overhang from potential Medicaid reforms to managed care organizations, hospitals, behavioral facilities, and other providers focused on these low-income enrollees will likely grow as the Trump administration staffs up and Congress…
November 7, 2024
[OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV] Enhanced Obamacare Exchange Subsidies – How Might They Stay?
Key Takeaways: We think investors exposed to insurers in the ACA exchange markets (OSCR, CNC, MOH, ELV) are underestimating the odds that the next Congress temporarily extends some of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to focus…
October 21, 2024
Managed Care Policy Puts and Takes
Key Takeaways: We remain optimistic about the long-term policy outlook for the managed care industry, despite the puts and takes for different business lines associated with the outcome of the upcoming elections on Nov. 5….
October 11, 2024
Negative Tone Confirmed for CY25 Medicare Advantage Stars and Beyond as Goalposts Continue to Move
Key Takeaways: As we expected, CMS’s release of the CY25 Medicare Advantage (MA)/Part D star ratings continues to limit program “largesse,” making bonus awards more selective and ratings harder to maintain YoY. For CY25, fewer…
October 8, 2024
Negative Tone Ahead for Medicare Advantage Stars While Awaiting CY25 Awards
Key Takeaways: Developments involving Humana (HUM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) last week show CMS remains intent on limiting the financial “largesse” insurers receive in its Medicare Advantage (MA)/Part D (PDP) star rating quality bonus program by…