September 22, 2026
[OSCR, CNC, HCA, THC, DVA, FRE.DE]: ACA Anti-Fraud Actions are More Noise Than New – and Potentially Material
This afternoon’s White House announcement of additional Obamacare anti-fraud actions does not change the direction of the ACA reset underway over the past year, nor our expectations for 2027 and 2028. While the actions appear…
September 14, 2026
[HCA, THC, DVA, PRVA, ENSG, PNTG]: Mapping Provider Policy Risk / Upside by Congressional Control in November Elections
With the November elections less than two months away, we assess how different congressional outcomes could reshape the healthcare legislative agenda for hospitals, dialysis centers, value-based care (VBC) providers, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), post-acute care…
September 1, 2026
[DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal] Final CY27 Dialysis Reg Likely Similar to Proposal; Limited, but Plausible, Paths to Upside
Our review of stakeholder feedback on CMS’s CY27 Medicare payment rule for dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private US Renal Care and Innovative Renal Care] leaves us expecting a final rule similar to the June proposal,…
June 25, 2026
[DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal] Medicare Proposal: Large Dialysis Chains Do Relatively Better but Phosphate Binder Policy Falls Short
CMS’s CY27 proposed Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment rule is likely to leave dialysis providers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] somewhat disappointed. The agency declined to extend the transitional drug add-on payment adjustment (TDAPA)…
April 27, 2026
Dialysis – CY27 Medicare Bundle: Phosphate Binders and Monthly Add-on Remain Swing Factors [DVA, FRE.DE, Innovative Renal]
With the CY27 Medicare end-stage renal disease (ESRD) payment proposal now under OMB review, uncertainty surrounding the extra payments for oral phosphate binders to dialysis centers [DVA, FRE.DE, private Innovative Renal] may emerge as an…
January 16, 2026
MedPAC Thoughts, Congress Unlikely to Listen
We expect the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission’s (MedPAC) FY/CY27 provider payment recommendations to meet the same fate as in prior years: largely ignored by Congress, though selectively cited by CMS to justify future regulatory tightening…
January 13, 2026
ACA Subsidy Deal Delayed, Not Derailed; 55% Odds Still Intact [OSCR, CNC, THC, CYH, DVA, FRE.DE]
Despite reports this afternoon that a bipartisan compromise on enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies will not be ready this week and is now expected to slip to the week of January 26, we continue to expect…
December 17, 2025
Obamacare Subsidy Developments: Lots of Movement but Still in Same Place for Now; Path Remains for Subsidy Deal in 1Q
Today’s news that four House Republicans joining House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-NY) discharge petition for a straight three-year extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies – and with House GOP leadership narrowly passing its own…
December 4, 2025
ACA Situation Stuck in Place but We Remain Optimistic of Eventual HIX Deal with a Slipping Timeline
The recent fits-and-starts for around a compromise to avert expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) at year-end unsurprisingly remains stalled, with no meaningful concessions from either side’s leaders. As we head into…
November 24, 2025
ACA HIX Fix: Enactment Odds Improve But Details TBD [OSCR, CNC, ACHC, THC, CYH, UHS, DVA, HQY]
Media reports (here, here, here) indicate that an ACA compromise may be imminent, with President Trump reportedly offering to support extension of the enhanced premium tax subsidies (with limitations) while channeling a portion into health…