Macro / Misc. (with Dylan)

There are currently 9 official Section 232 investigations pending at the Department of Commerce with the furniture tariff investigation likely to become official within days, and we think more are forthcoming.  If the Trump administration…

Before we get to our analysis below, we are hosting a trade conference call tentatively set for 11:00 am ET next Wednesday, July 30 with a leading trade specialist, Derek Scissors. Look for a conference…

We think the Senate is likely to remain in Republican hands after the 2026 mid-term elections, though with GOP at risk for losing seats, which could have implications for financial markets. We continue to view…

While we are a more than a year away from the mid-term elections, we offer our early view about which party might control the House after next November. Our bottom line: we expect the House…

Below is a table of the material tax provisions of the final reconciliation bill that was signed into law by President Trump on July 4. While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has stated his desire to…

In our view, the debate over the reconciliation bill isn’t about whether or not it will pass—it’s mostly a foregone conclusion that it will—but whether Congress can get it done by President Trump’s desired date…

In light of the weighty sports betting tax hike in Illinois over the weekend and the modest increase in Maryland last week, investors should continue to expect tax hikes in various states offset at times…

The SNAP/food stamp program has been of focus lately as various states have filed for SNAP benefit waivers, and one, Nebraska, was granted approval for one. In addition, Republicans are looking to cut SNAP as…

We view the IRA green energy tax credits in the House Ways and Means Committee as a worst-case scenario. We believe that, in aggregate, these tax breaks won’t get worse when the Senate cobbles together…